Monday, June 03, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Remain in a Bull Market Higher Prices Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1411.70
Change : 19.10 or 1.37%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.715
Change : 0.487 or 2.19%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.148
Change : -0.502 or -0.80%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01609
Change : 0.000129 or 0.81%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1496.20
Change : 35.60 or 2.44%

Palladium Price Close Today : 756.80
Change : 5.75 or 0.77%

S&P 500 : 1,640.42
Change : 9.68 or 0.59%

Dow In GOLD$ : $223.37
Change : $ (1.01) or -0.45%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.805
Change : -0.049 or -0.45%

Dow in SILVER oz : 671.54
Change : -8.48 or -1.25%

Dow Industrial : 15,254.03
Change : 138.46 or 0.92%

US Dollar Index : 82.68
Change : -0.540 or -0.65%

Silver and GOLD PRICES both rose today and the poor old silver and gold bears will have to explain, I reckon, what happened, how gold lost $18.90 on Friday but bounced right back by $19.10 to $1,411.70, and how silver lost 44.6 cents Friday but came back 48.7 cents today to close 2271.5c. Shucks, gold even closed above its 20 DMA (1,409.22).

All this does not yet quite define success, though, as the gold price has knocked twice before on that $1,415 door, only to have it slammed in its face. Gold must prove and improve today's recovery by closing ABOVE $1,415 tomorrow, and not some twenty cents, either, but preferably up over $1,420 -- stoutly.

Today's close pushes gold's face into the downtrend line from the April high, but doesn't push it through.

The GOLD PRICE has outlined a flat topped triangle, and the textbooks say those usually (u-s-u-a-l-l-y) break out upside. Tomorrow will tell. Odds favor higher gold tomorrow, if only for its spunky recovery from Friday's pummeling.

SILVER PRICE has traced out a trading range bounded by 2200c and 2329c. Today it touched its 20 DMA (2293c) but its range was a measly 60 cents. Public interest appears low and Commitments of Traders are signaling huge pessimism, both of which are GREAT NEWS for silver because advances only begin from oversold lows when optimism is scraping bottom.

But first -- the breakout over 2330c. Need to see silver prove itself.

Time is working against lower lows, as silver and GOLD PRICES usually put in seasonal lows in June. Can't be sure this push up is the beginning of another advance just yet, but if not now, then soon.

I remind you all: silver and gold prices remain in a bull market. If they do make further lows, they won't fall much below what we've seen. This is the worst time to climb out of the precious metals boat. Be patient, accumulate more. Let the croakers croak, let the whiners whine, let those whose time horizon reaches nearly to 5:30 brag, just keep it steady and stick with the primary trend, the bull market in silver and gold.

Y'all, these markets are waxing so preposterous, so laughable that it's too much even for a natural born fool from Tennessee to stomach. I'm embarrassed for 'em. They got no more shame than a starving, mangy dog.

Why, it don't matter, all bad news transmogrifies into good news. Today US factory activity dropped. Bad news for the economy? Naa, never mind, good news for stocks became it means more stimulus money-printing from the Fed, font of all economic well-being. In Europe the good news was -- y'all listen, this is rich -- that manufacturing was deteriorating more gradually than previously estimated! Hot ziggety dog! They're a-shrinking slower than they feared!

I could sit up all night and not hit on anything this outrageously hare-brained.

"General Custer, I've got great news! Those 40,000 Indians we thought were chasing us turned out to be only 39,800! And our packs are really light because we left half our ammo back at the fort!"

The good news that US factory activity is so bad that the Fed will have to print more dollars goosed the stock market. Dow rocketed upward 138.46 (0.92%) to 15,254.03 while the S&P500 shot up 9.68 (0.59%) to 1,640.42.

Y'all won't think me ill-mannered, will you, to point out the garbage can in the middle of the room? Stocks Friday closed below their 20 day moving averages, and they've established a downtrend since 22 May's key reversal -- you know, lower lows and lower highs? Might catch around the 50 day moving averages (today 14,890 and 1,601). No doubt WILL drop mo. (Listen, if Wm. Shakespeare can say "mo" for "more," so can I.)

Today it happened: Dow in Gold broke the 20 DMA. Closed 10.854 oz (G$224.38 gold dollars), right at the 20 DMA (10.81 oz or G$223.462), but it traded below it all day long. Also closed right at that long term downtrend line.

Dow in silver dropped 8.48 oz (1.26%) to 671.54 ounces. This touched the 20 DMA (664.63) but didn't close below it. Tomorrow. Tomorrow.

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are both arguing strongly that we have already seen prices lows in metals. Storm hasn't passed, sun isn't quite out, but looks like the danger has passed.

That old US dollar index fell and hurt itself today. Dropped 54 basis points (0.7%) to 82.675, well below its 50 day moving average (82.96). A close below 82.50 will suck all the morale out of dollar holders. Barring a dramatic reversal, like a close tomorrow above 84, dollar index is destined to study its reflection in the pavement.

Y'all won't believe this, but the yen, yes, the Japanese yen, touched its 20 DMA today (101.23) and closed above 100 cents at 100.49 cents/Y100, up 0.91%. Now stands above its 20 DMA also. Going higher? I reckon.

And on that shiny good news that Europe is falling apart slower than previously estimated, the Euro rose 06.2% to $1.3079. Poked its head through the overhead downtrend line, too. Probably has $1.3200 in its sights.

Thanks very much for your kind concern for my wife Susan. Her cardiologist at Vanderbilt took a look at her EKG from Friday and couldn't find a single thing wrong. But today my grandson, Tucker Bain, 15 has to have an emergency appendectomy, so I'd appreciate your prayers for him.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.