|Gold Price, $/oz.||1,204.40||1,212.60||8.20||0.7|
|Silver Price, $/oz.||16.263||16.513||0.25||1.5|
|Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)||311.36||223.88||-87.48||-28.1|
|Dow in gold ounces||15.06||10.83||-4.23||-28.1|
|Dow in Silver ounces||1,115.44||795.29||-320.15||-28.7|
|US dollar index||94.43||95.32||0.89||0.9|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
The GOLD PRICE five day chart shows a steady but not particularly pretty advance. Is that a forward move, or merely a correction of a downward move?
The week's action was encouraging. The gold price dropped through the uptrend line to a low at $1,190 and looked ready to sink to the earth's molten core. It didn't. Turned around and rose away from the line. However, it hasn't done anything yet to reveal its mind. It must best resistance at $1,220 and $1,240, with $1,230 a nasty swamp in between.
A chilling thought choked me this evening: maybe I am hurting y'all more than I am helping. Maybe poring over charts every day gives you a utopian, perfectionist mindset. In other words, the will o' the wisp of picking a bottom perfectly.
That's a deadly delusion. Sivler & gold prices probably bottomed in November, but even if they didn't the downside risk probably isn't $70 for gold from here, or a dollar for silver.
Today those look like big distances, a year from now they won't. I remember when the gold price finally reached $340. I chewed ten penny nails and sweat bullets over whether to buy there or wait for the "inevitable" correction to $320. Wadn't I a durned ole nat'ral born fool from Tennessee! Why that $340 gold would look pretty well bought today, wouldn't it? Oh, no, I had to wait for perfection, and watch it punch through $340 and fly away.
Anyhow, the Greeks buying sovereigns reminded me of something else. With bank deposits & bonds not paying any interest, and actually costing you money when you figure in inflation, I'd a sight rather have my money in gold where at least there's SOME chance of appreciation, instead of a guaranteed loss in paper money. And what if there was another financial panic or bank closure? Way too late to buy gold then, like waiting till the tavern fight breaks out to shop for a Bowie knife.
Sound like I'm trying to persuade y'all of something? Well, I am. My life's work has been to point people to the fatal perils of fiat money & the safety of metals. Making money on gold and silver as an investment is just cream cheese icing on that cake of safety.
Whoa! Yesterday's commentary contained a whopping typo. The US $20 gold piece does NOT contain 0.9875 troy ounce fine gold, but 0.9675. I'm going to shoot my proofreader. Y'all don't tell anybody about that. I'll be really embarrassed if that gets out.
Here's a passing strange thing: Dow & S&P500 made new all-time highs this week, but closed the week lower. That don't fit. Somebody's talking out of both sides of the mouth. More, after a week's struggle that threatened to break down existing uptrends, silver & gold dug in their heels & got some traction, enough to close the week higher. So did platinum & palladium. Dollar index also rose, in one of the most bogus levitations in history.
Mark O'Byrne of GoldCore reported today that Greece's central bank reported today a record 12.2 billion euro outflow in January. That's a slow bankrun. The Green central bank also has New Drachma notes designed and ready to print, just in case. Greeks are buying physical gold, especially British sovereigns, traditionally their favorite, according to O'Byrne.
Behold & ponder, O ye Docile Dollar Holders! Why would Greeks buy gold? Because if they leave the money in the bank and Greece exits the euro, they don't know WHAT they might get, or what it might be worth. Better gold by far than taking a chance on a euro without Greece or a New Drachma.
Like Germans, Greeks have been through more than one currency devaluation, depreciation, & change-over. Nobody needs to explain it to them. They get it: gold is better than paper. Let him who has ears, hear! Too late to buy gold once the government springs its surprise party.
Here I am, poor fool from Tennessee, trying to parse these stock indices. All fell across the board today. Dow lost 81.72 (0.45%) to 18,132.70; S&P500 coughed up 6.24 (0.3%) to 2,104.5.
I remain in the meditation, "Is this a breakout or a fakeout?" To reach new highs but close the week lower, well, looks a tad sleazy. It's bad taste. S&P500 closed below its uptrend line.
|Dow in Gold|
|Dow in Silver|
You can see a 5 day dollar index chart (below right). Soon as you see it, you'll understand what I meant by Bogus. The dollar index chart is trending down, maybe finding a footing, then on Thursday it hockey sticks straight up. After Janet Yellen couldn't get it excited this week, something suddenly goosed it over 200 basis points. I reckon I'm just suspicious, or disgusted with markets so juvenile & fidgety they'll move on a durned old lying government report. Headline today (if it's good news), footnote in two weeks that takes it all back. Hogwash. Folks have the attention span of a gnat, & far too much money to play with, thanks to central banks & their carry trades.
|5 Day Dollar Index|
Euro broke down yesterday, but has not quite matched its last intraday low ($1.1166). Today it did, however, make its lowest close for the move, $1.1196, down 0.03%. Limber up your passports & go to Europe this summer: whole continent's gonna be on sale.
Japanese yen sank 0.2% to 83.59, but it is only moving sideways.
|West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil|
West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC) did NOT break down today, but rose 1.23% to $49.52/barrel. It's traced out a trading range between $47.80 and $54.15, & it's the least bit tapering to the right.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.