Tuesday, February 10, 2015

The Gold Price Backed Off $9.20 or 0.74 Percent to Close at $1,231.60

10-Feb-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,231.60-9.20-0.74%
Silver Price, $/oz16.86-0.20-1.16%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.0620.3050.42%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0137-0.0001-0.42%
Platinum Price1,209.30-13.40-1.10%
Palladium Price766.00-13.95-1.79%
S&P 5002,068.5921.851.07%
Dow in GOLD $s299.924.551.54%
Dow in GOLD oz14.510.221.54%
Dow in SILVER oz1,060.0220.431.96%
US Dollar Index94.820.150.16%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE backed off $9.20 (0.74%) to $1,231.60. Silver lost 19.7 cents (1.16%) to $16.857.

The GOLD PRICE remains above that neckline that has become my obsession. Tomorrow gold will meet it about $1,225 (today's low was $1,230.60). Above gold needs to slice through minor resistance about $1,245 and jump above its 200 DMA at $1,253.16. Skittering around here a couple of days won't hurt anything, provided gold doesn't close below that neckline.

The SILVER PRICE correction has formed a bullish falling wedge Today it remained above its 20 DMA. I know y'all are going to say I need one of those jackets that buckle in the back, but silver appears to be readying another big leg up. Only a close below $16.040 would gainsay that.

The Greeks and Germans are butting heads over Greece's bailout (really bailing out banks Greek and European who hold sorry Greek government debt) and the outcome threatens to blow apart the euro.

If you were the Nice Government Men, how would you handle this crisis? Don't bother weaseling with me about them not intervening in markets. Central banks and governments have battalions of experts who war game such situations in theory, readying themselves for practice.

Back in January when left-wing Syriza won the Greek election by promising to re-negotiate the bail out, "realizers" in Greece began withdrawing what money they had left in Greek banks and sending it abroad. How do you counter that?

Also, stock investors jittery about Greece are liable to sell and hide in cash, sending stocks down. Got to jack those up, NGM!

Whew! What about currencies? Can't let them run wild. Need to keep the euro from crashing through the trap door to the cellar and melting toward the earth's core, so NGM need to support euros. Wouldn't do, either, to support the euro but let the dollar shoot moonward, so the NGM need to lean on that US dollar till it bends -- don't break, just bend.

But even if Greek banks were supported and US and European stocks and the euro straightened and the dollar bent, all would be for naught if silver and gold launched into the heavens, wherefore, until the negotiations are successfully concluded, the NGM must busy themselves selling lots and lots of paper gold.

Whoa! Hold on there! I'm not saying this is what the Nice Government Men in fact ARE doing, only that these are a few of the concerns I'd fix if I were a NGM, perish the thought.

My point is that today and yesterday and as long as this Greek mess draggeth on, we can't be sure whether what we see in markets is real, or Memorex.

Until about 10:50 Eastern time this morning, it looked like stocks were about to enjoy a thoroughly rotten day. But aha! Big buyers stepped in to carry the market up until closing. Dow added 139.55 (0.08%) to 17,868.76. S&P500 levitated 21.85 (1.07%) to 2,068.59.

Trading today left both the Dow and S&P500 above and outside their since-December downtrend lines, and above the 20 and 50 day moving averages in which both indices have lately tangled their feet. This could set stocks up for another run higher which will again make them "stupor mundi" for one last, brief moment.

What meaneth that for the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver? Well, we don't know, because if metals keep on rising while stocks rise, the DiG and DiS would stay flat or keep dropping. Only if silver and gold took a dive from here would they rise. I reckon that unlikely because silver and gold are rallying off last year's lows, which (for now at least) I count as the lows for the 2011-2014 correction.

Today those indicators did no more than fishhook up, but both ended slightly above their 50 DMAs. Dow in gold ended at G$299.74 gold dollars (14.50 troy ounces), up 1.32%, while the Dow in Silver ended up 1.37% at S$1,369.24 silver dollars (1,059.02 troy ounces).

US dollar index today rose only 15 basis points (0.16%) to 94.82. Its fall out of that small even-sided triangle on 3 February. It has established a downtrend, however, and today closed at the top boundary line. Ought to drop more, but with the Greek cards up in the air, there's just no telling.

Euro lost 0.1% to $1.1314. Sure. Yen lost 0.75 to 83.73. Has begun yet another fall.

Meanwhile, the US 10 year treasury note yield gapped up today to its highest level in a month, and rose for the sixth straight day. Am I left to believe that so many investors now expect the Fed, on recent puny, forged economic statistics, to raise interest rates sooner rather than later? And that US government bonds are catching no safe haven bid from Europe's troubles? Seems plumb odd.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.