Tuesday, February 03, 2015

The Gold Price Lost $16.50 or 1.29 Percent Today Closing at $1,259.70

3-Feb-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,259.70-16.50-1.29%
Silver Price, $/oz17.310.070.41%
Gold/Silver Ratio72.794-1.253-1.69%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01370.00021.72%
Platinum Price1,237.206.800.55%
Palladium Price786.30-2.00-0.25%
S&P 5002,050.0329.181.44%
Dow in GOLD $s289.918.693.09%
Dow in GOLD oz14.020.423.09%
Dow in SILVER oz1,020.8813.571.35%
US Dollar Index93.75-1.07-1.13%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Sorry I missed y'all yesterday. I had to make a little day trip up to Murfreesboro, & got back too late to write a commentary.

Odd day in metals, when the GOLD PRICE falls $16.50 (1.3%) and silver falls 7 cents (0.4%). They ended at $1,259.70 & $17.05.

Nothing has changed my opinion: silver and GOLD PRICES are making a Final Kiss Good-Bye touchback correction toward where they broke out. So far gold has refused to all below its 200 DMA (now $1,254.22) where also support from that October high lurks at $1,255.60. If it should break that line, it will probably come tomorrow or the next day and might carry back to the neckline at $1,227. That is a possibility, but not what I expect. Rather, I expect gold to stay above the last low, $1,252.10.

The SILVER PRICE is gainsaying gold, but then, has also already finished a trip back to that comparable neckline. Silver only needs to stay above $16.75, the last low.

Biggest problem watching markets is that your human nature makes you gloomy when everybody else is gloomy and manic when everybody else is, precisely the opposite that wisdom and success call for. Right about here is where I'd wipe off the gloom if it took industrial strength degreaser & a rag & I would buy. Risk of being wrong is not great, nor very expensive.

But of course, I could have it all wrong.

My, O, my, stocks are on a reg'lar tear! Dow gained 196.09 (1.14%) yesterday and gobbled up another 305.36 (1.76%) today to close at 17,666.40. S&P500's Mother Ship Company did get fined $1.8 billion today for its part in giving healthy ratings to sick Mortgage Backed Securities, but they did nothing wrong, just paying $1.8 billion to get this behind them. S&P500 yesterday rose 25.86 (1.3%) and another 29.19 today to end at 2,050.03

Today carried the Dow through its 20 DMA & clean to its 50 DMA, whoops, after yesterday it had cut into its 200 DMA with a low at 17,037.76, lower than the December 17,067 low. Tomorrow the falling upper boundary of that triangle I've been talking about stands about 17,800 (You might also call it the downtrend line from the December high). that would be a good place for it to stop and fail, but it might not. Doesn't matter, its time is limited.

S&P500 did all that the Dow did but closed above its 50 DMA, too. Hits the downtrend line tomorrow at 2,054, but it could rise further, too. In recent months we've see lots of these hefty reversals wilt after a few days.

Drat! Dow in Gold rose up through the 200 DMA and to the 20 DMA (G$287.54 gold dollars or 13.91 troy ounces.) Yet oddly enough, it has formed a little Gator Jaws formation. DiG would have to rise to G$310.08 (15 tr. Oz) to negate the big Gator Jaws it has already formed and fallen out of. Probably won't happen, although we may see more upward correction. Rose 2.87% today to G$289.61 (14.01 troy ounces).

Dow in silver climbed only 1.23% to S$1,320.08 silver dollars (1,021.18 oz). Did land barely above the 20 DMA (S$1,308.92 or 1,012.37 oz).

Neither the DiG nor the DiS looks like it is reversing -- nothing more than usual correction.

US dollar index plunged a whacking big 107 basis points today (1.13%) to 93.75. Ee-yeeew. It had formed an even sided triangle, traded all the way out into the nose, then today collapsed down to the 20 DMA (90.52) and bounced a little. Target is at least 93, but the point is that the dollar's momentum has been badly broken. Rats should start jumping ship in mobs tomorrow. Chart on the right.

Euro rallied 1.23% to end at $1.1479 and still didn't quite touch its 20 DMA ($1.1550). It has scratched out a tee-tiny little uptrend, but won't convince anybody of anything till it throws a leg over that 20 DMA & climbs more rungs as well. Yen has barely broken out of a long even-sided triangle, but refuses to jump up. Rose 0.02% to 85.06 -- fooey.

West Texas Intermediate Crude leaves no question it is rallying. Rose 3.5% today to $51.57/barrel, & left its 20 DMA behind three days ago, after a double bottom in January. I'm not saying the long slide has ended, only that it ought to rally to $55.88, the 50 DMA, or the downtrend line at $62.90.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.