Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Gold Price Above the Twice-Proven Uptrend Line from the November Bottom

17-Feb-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,208.10-18.40-1.50%
Silver Price, $/oz16.36-0.92-5.30%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.8362.8494.01%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0135-0.0005-3.86%
Platinum Price1,180.00-30.50-2.52%
Palladium Price783.55-11.20-1.41%
S&P 5002,100.343.350.16%
Dow in GOLD $s308.815.111.68%
Dow in GOLD oz14.940.251.68%
Dow in SILVER oz1,103.0260.115.76%
US Dollar Index94.11-0.11-0.12%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Silver & GOLD PRICES took sharp dives today. Silver lost 91.6 cents (5.3%) to $16.362, with a low at $16.26. Gold fell $18.4 (1.5%) to $1,208.10.

Gold Price
All that sounds terrible, but doesn't look terrible on a chart. The GOLD PRICE Remains above the twice-proven uptrend line from the November bottom, which tomorrow stands at $1,195. Barely below the neckline of the September - December upside down head and shoulders. Also touching the bottom Bollinger band, which suggests it's time to think about buying. Chart on the right.

Silver Price
Friday the SILVER PRICE had broken out of that falling wedge, and today gave back all that gain and more, falling back into the wedge and touching its bottom Bollinger band. Need to see one day closing higher to buy it. Chart on the left.

Gold Silver Ratio
GOLD/SILVER RATIO stands at 73.836, and is remaining beneath the downtrend line from its diamond reversal. Choppy, confused, but trending down as it should for a metals rally. Chart on the right

I've been iced in for nearly two days, living out here past where the pavement ends and you have to order sunlight from Sears & Roebuck. Did manage to get out late today, but without guilt can say I enjoyed the vacation & solitude with my dear wife and a roaring fire.

Greece, with 2.1% of the European Union population & 1.4% of EU gross domestic product, is trying to throw the EU banks with political jujitsu. Greece will no doubt get a lesson in who rules the EU & the world, namely, the banks.

Greece also offers an object lesson in government fecklessness & stupidity. Governments ruin not only economies, but whole peoples as well. You can put almost any Greek down anywhere in the developed world except Greece, and he'll start a business & get rich. At home, government wrecks them. Maybe all the Greeks ought to move to Australia, New Zealand, & Tennessee, and leave Greece to the refugee Syrians & Albanians. Let the banks try to collect from them.

Until nearly 1:00 p.m. stocks were underwater, but they finished the day (he noted without comment about help from the NGM) higher. Dow gained a miniscule 28.23 (0.16%) to 18,047.58 while the S&P500 made a new high by a few points, ending up 3.35 (016%) at 2,100.34.

Soon a bogus announcement will be made about a bogus deal with the Greeks that will furnish the excuse for yet higher stock prices. We're going to get another little run up here, but growing more attenuated all the time, rising on falling volume, making new highs by half millimeters.

Dow in gold jumped 1.71% to G$308.63 gold dollars (14.93 troy oz). Dow in silver leapt 5.33% to S$1,416.78 silver dollars (1,095.79 troy oz). Remains within the maddening gator jaws, headed toward the top jaw. This tedious, delayed up & down characterizes these formations, but they break reliably down -- eventually.

US dollar index confirmed today its breakdown on the 12th by dropping again, 11 basis points (0.12%) to 94.11. That leaves it firmly beneath the 20 DMA (94.45) & seeking lower levels.

None of that helped the euro much. It rose 0.21% to $1.1414, which, I confess, is above its 20 DMA ($1.1371) but sure inspires no one by its chart. It has formed an even-sided triangle, but needs a break above $1.1500 to prove any upward inclination.

Yen dropped 0.36% to 83.37. Broke down 7 days ago but now drifting aimlessly sideways

WTIC is clearly trending up, founded on a double bottom. Has now formed a flat topped rising triangle, which usually breaks out skyward. Rose 1.08% to $53.24/barrel.

Ten year treasury not yield rose sharply today, 6.14% to 2.145%. That means bonds are dropping, but why? No safe haven bid? Investors switching from bonds to stocks -- in large numbers?

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.