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Thursday, March 31, 2011

Gold Price Rose $15.10 to Close Comex at $1438.90, Barely a New High

Gold Price Close Today : 1438.90
Change : 15.10 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 37.872
Change : 37.1 cents or 1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 37.99
Change : 0.027 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02632
Change : -0.000019 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1767.40
Change : -3.10 or -0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 763.20
Change : 11.90 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,325.83
Change : -2.43 or -0.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $176.99
Change : $ (2.31) or -1.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.562
Change : -0.112 or -1.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 325.30
Change : -0.85 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial : 12,319.73
Change : -30.88 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index : 75.99
Change : -0.128 or -0.2%

Here's how y'all can always tell if I have misspoken myself: (1) if it contradicts what I am steadily telling y'all otherwise, and (2) if it makes no sense whatever.

Yesterday I typed "swap gold for silver," which clearly was a mistaken inversion. Why? Because I have been telling you to swap silver for gold since the ratio was 47.5, and because you only need to look at a chart and remember that you swap gold for silver when the ratio is HIGH relative to where it has been recently, and swap silver for gold when the ratio is LOW relative to recent level.

Sorry, but when I write these in a white hot heat at day's end with other duties yet crying to be done, I will make mistakes. Please forgive me.

I took a trip today to go look over some milch cows, but silver and gold did not disappoint me. Dollar may be breaking down. Stocks wavered.

Since we live not in a perfect world, we take the best we can get and run home with it. Yes, it would have been better had the GOLD PRICE risen $100 today, but it rose only $15.10 to close Comex at $1,438.90, barely a new high, yet will I hug that to my breast and run home smiling.

Now the gold price is clean above its 20 day moving average and has room and momentum to run. It needs only to post an intraday high greater than the last one at $1,447.30. Gold really has no excuse to fall back tomorrow, but if hath strength genuine and lasting, 'twill burst thru $1,439 and close above $1,440. Gold must not decline below $1,425, or 'twill lose this inertia.

The SILVER PRICE reached a new high today by adding 37.1c on Comex and closing at 3787.2c. High came at 3792.9c. Now 3800c assumes the role of roadblock and silver must run it over. Underneath silver lie the strong arms of 3740c, and that it must hold.

With this running start, like broad jumping, silver may not now stop, pause, and look around but must press heartily toward the goal and leap over 3800c. Expect to see that tomorrow.

Bull markets: they climb a wall of worry.


Don't y'all think it strange that the Euro is so very jumpy? Today it popped up again, closed at 1.4159, not quite reaching the last high. Is it a double top, or lead up to a higher breakout? Beats me. I can't imagine why anyone would buy euros in the first place, unless he was planning a European vacation. It's a scrofulous fiat currency not one whit prettier than the scrofulous US dollar.

Speaking of dollars, the dollar index sank 12.8 basis points to a portentous 75.99. Why portentous? High and heavy symbolism lives within that demoralizing close below 76.00. Right, it's only one point, but why didn't the market allow that point to the upside rather than the down?

Technically the dollar hasn't broken down YET, but it is pointed to that last intraday low at 75.25. If it catches there and rebounds, then that's probably the dollar's bottom for this move. If it sinks thru 75.25, then hello 74.

STOCKS wavered and faltered today. 'Twas a ragged day. A rally was defeated early, by 10:45. Then down, then a feeble climb above unchanged, then more vibrating, but in the end sinking 30.88 to close at 12,319.73. S&P500 lost 2.43 to 1,325.83.

Now picture yourself throwing a basketball straight up in the air. The force of your big, bulging muscles sends it shooting into the air. It's acceleration slows, then it seems to hover an instant, then gravity resumes control and it accelerates toward earth and because you are muscle-bound and so slow moving, it smacks you right across the bridge of the nose and gives you two black eyes and a broken nose.

Stocks were doing the hovering part of that today.

At the Top of the World Farm we have two (2) mules for sale, one coming 3 and one coming 1. Both were imprint trained at birth, and the coming-3 is gentle as a dog, the coming-1 not so. Both are out of fine Percheron mares. Jack that sired the coming-3 was 18 hands high, huge. Both mules are for sale, so if you are interested call my son Justin at (888) 218-9226. Serious calls only, please.

MILESTONES OF AMERICAN TECHNOLOGICAL ACHIEVEMENT: On this day in 1896 Chicago's Whitcomb Judson patented a hookless fastener known colloquially as the "zipper."

On this day in 1933 the socialists in the US congress authorized the Civilization Conservation Corps to relieve unemployment by government created jobs. That's what they had to do in the dark times before "stimulus packages" were invented. All things considered, it wasn't too bad. The CCC built some nice state parks and lookout towers and killed some mosquitoes.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Until the Gold Price Closes Above that Last High, it Remains in a Downtrend

Gold Price Close Today : 1423.80
Change : 7.60 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 37.501
Change : 0.517 cents or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 37.97
Change : -0.325 or -0.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02634
Change : 0.000224 or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1770.50
Change : 27.80 or 1.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 751.30
Change : -1.35 or -0.2%

S&P 500 : 1,328.26
Change : 8.82 or 0.7%

Dow In GOLD$ : $179.32
Change : $ 0.10 or 0.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.674
Change : 0.005 or 0.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 329.34
Change : 1.86 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,350.61
Change : 71.60 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 76.09
Change : 0.157 or 0.2%

The GOLD PRICE rose a respectable $7.60 today to $1,423.80, but not enough to resolve bated-breath doubts. Until the gold price closes above that last high, it remains in a downtrend. Today it only pushed up against the $1,425 ceiling, but didn't break through. It's built firm support at $1,410, but "holding" is not "advancing," as Gen. George Patton might say. The gold price needs to gain ground tomorrow, and probably will.

A close above $1,438 turns gold up, a close below $1,410 turns it down. This rally will run further.

The SILVER PRICE rose 51.7c to 3750.1c, a new high close but not a new intraday high. That came at 3814c four days ago. UNLESS silver trades below 3640c, tomorrow ought to be another up day with silver progressing toward 4400c.

Party could end any time, or it could rock on quite some time. Silver shows no signs of slowing down. Ratio hit a new low today, 38.002.

Right now I would trade gold for silver, still, because that reaction will eventually come.

The euro bounced up off its 20 day moving average and who knows, maybe it will suck all the money in the world into itself. Then again, maybe not. It reached 1.4125 today versus the last (7 days ago) 1.4244 high. Strong euro wears on the dollar of course, but the dollar is sick and sorry enough without any help from the Euro. Couldn't hold on above its 20 DMA (76.25) today and now is trading 15.7 basis points lighter than yesterday at 76.092. Dollar supporters find themselves making excuses like, "Well, yes, it is ugly and scabrous and warty, but it's made in America!" Dollar may have turned up but has as much proving to do as a drunk husband coming home at 3:30 a.m.

STOCKS showed strength today. Dow rose 71.6 to 12,350.61, only about 50 points beneath the February high. S&P500 rose to 1,328.26, up 8.82 points but below the 1,344.07 February intraday high.

About stocks I feel the same way all those good folks from Arkansas felt when the rest of the country elected Bill and Hillary president. The Arkansans knew what the country had fallen into, but they just wouldn't listen.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN FIRST: On this day in 1842 Dr. Crawford Long of Georgia used ether anesthesia for the first time.

On this day in 1870 Texas became the last Confederate state re-admitted to the union. Mmmmm. Wonder what they think about that today.

MILESTONES OF AMERICAN CULTURE: On this day in 1964 "Jeopardy" premiered on US TV.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, March 29, 2011

A Close Below $1,392 Sends the Gold Price Tumbling

Gold Price Close Today : 1416.20
Change : (3.70) or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 36.984
Change : 10.1 cents or -0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 38.29
Change : 0.005 or 0.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02611
Change : -0.000003 or 0.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1742.70
Change : -2.80 or -0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 752.65
Change : 8.35 or 1.1%

S&P 500 : 1,319.44
Change : 9.25 or 0.7%

Dow In GOLD$ : $179.23
Change : $ 1.67 or 0.9%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.670
Change : 0.081 or 0.9%

Dow in SILVER oz : 332.01
Change : 2.20 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial : 12,279.01
Change : 81.13 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index : 76.17
Change : 0.044 or 0.1%

When I was a kid I never could figure out why we had to wash dishes and make up beds. After all, it was a foregone conclusion we were going to dirty the dishes and mess up the beds again, shortly, right? So why keep washing and making up? Now that I have lasted 63 years, I don't ask that question any longer.

That also explains why we follow a market trend until it changes. Yes, yes, every rise will be followed by a corrective fall. That's a foregone conclusion, BUT it hasn't happened yet, so go with the trend. Thus with trembling I look at the frantic SILVER and GOLD markets, knowing someday they will correct, but I am not going to fight the trend.

Ho-hum, the GOLD PRICE corrected a bit today, but without any meaningful action. Yesterday's low was a smudge above $1,410, as was today's. That's strong action at support, provided gold doesn't return for another visit. Up above that $1,425 level has gold pinned in again, so it needs to smash that gate tomorrow. Comex closed down $3.70 at $1,416.20. Trading now at $1,419.15.

As long as gold refuses to be driven below $1,405, maybe $1,392 in a pinch, it threatens no significant correction. A close below $1,392 sends the gold price tumbling.

The SILVER PRICE appears a mite iffy today, but -- listen to this -- the gold/silver ratio made another new low today at 38.292. Try to wrap your brain around this: silver and gold both dipped, but gold dipped enough more that the ratio dropped. Ratio has now passed the 100 year average and is plunging toward the 200 year average.

Five day chart reveals silver blocked by 3720c, but supported by 3640c. There's the range, and to move silver must break out of it one day or another. Comex silver gave up 10.1c to 3698.4c.

If silver and gold intend to move higher -- and my guess is that the will -- then they'll have to do it soon since a high in May or April is seasonally their last chance before October. No cosmic law decrees they can't top in June - September, but twould be a giant anomaly.

I return to my concern voiced a few days ago: why the strength in metals and stocks? What does the market know? Why does silver keep on pushing to new highs by 2 or 3%? None of this suggests a calm and prosperous future for the dollar or the world economy.

That scrofulous US Dollar index has climbed off its 75.25 low six days ago up to its 20 day moving average, (76.28), first tripwire of a possible upturn. Today the dollar added a nearly invisible 4.4 basis points and is trading at 76.172, but look on the bright side: it's not below 76. The scrofulous euro gained 0.16% today for a 1.4106 close. It has been pushed back from its late peak nearly to its 20 dma (1.4018). That gap it left nine days past has now been filled, leaving the stench of an exhaustion gap in the air. The yen has left two gaps in the last two days as it plunged beneath its 20 and 50 day MAs toward a range where all the world's Nice Government Men will feel comfortable again. Yen not trading at 82.45Y/$ (121.285c/100 yen).

In its own tortuous (?tortious) way the dollar seems to be slowly bottoming.

For all those naïve souls who believe that Comrade Bernanke has lost control of the dollar, I must prick your bubble. Exchange rates are ALL manipulated. If the buck is headed down, as it has been since July 2001 when last it touched 121, there is a reason: the government and Fed decided to let it depreciate.

Wake up, mushrooms! Those two are NOT your friends.

My-yo-my, stocks caught a wave again today. Dow floated up 81.13 points to 12,279.01 while the S&P500 fattened by 9.25 to 1,319.44. Last three days stocks have kept bumping against 12,275. February high was 12,391.29 (S&P500 - 1,344.07), and nothing happens until that is beaten. Don't count on it, but you can always wait for that while you're waiting for the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, and the Honest Politician.

Wow, talk about conflicted! Stocks are a sham, but silver tends to outperform gold while stocks are strong. Who do I root for in that game?

MILESTONES OF AMERICAN CULTURE: On this day in 1884 John Pemberton introduced Coca-Cola in Atlanta. Since Pemberton was looking for a cure for his morphine addiction after being wounded as a Confederate soldier, the company's later denials that the concoction never really contained cocaine seem somewhat fanciful. Never mind, give it to 'em, but in those days narcotics were available at all drugstores, as in some countries today still, and you could buy laudanum (tincture of opium) over the counter. Pemberton made numerous health claims for his product, and said it was "delicious, refreshing, exhilarating, invigorating" and "a valuable brain tonic." Depending on what was in it, I reckon so.

Nowadays you don't have to worry about any narcotics in soft drinks, because the high fructose corn syrup will kill you far quicker and less kindly than cocaine. Worse yet are the artificial sweeteners, some of which metabolize to formaldehyde in your body. Both HFCS and artificial sweeteners operate the same way on your body: they make you hungrier. If you are fighting a weight problem, you don't want to get any closer to a soft drink than a bloodhound would come to a skunk. I'd just as soon drink a big glass of milk mixed with cat hair and lard.

On this day in 1867 the Dominion of Canada was created by the British North America Act. Confederate Secretary of State, Judah P. Benjamin, fled after the War to England where be became a barrister and Queen's Counsel. I have read but cannot now footnote that Benjamin's advice on that the Act helped guide it toward federalism, such as the United States union was until converted by the genocide revolutionary Lincoln into a monolithic unitary state.

The monthly Moneychanger newsletter for March 2011 has been posted to www.the-moneychanger.com, where paid subscribers can pick it up.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, March 25, 2011

Buy, Hold, and Keep on Buying Gold and Silver

Gold Price Close Today : 1,426.20
Gold Price Close 18-Mar : 1,415.90
Change : 10.30 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 3705.8
Silver Price Close 18-Mar : 3506
Change : $1.998 or 5.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 38.49
Gold Silver Ratio 18-Mar : 40.39
Change : -1.90 or -4.7%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02598
Silver Gold Ratio 18-Mar : 0.02476
Change : 0.00122 or 4.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 177.13
Dow in Gold Dollars 18-Mar : $ 173.13
Change : $ 4.00 or 2.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.569
Dow in Gold Ounces 18-Mar : 8.375
Change : 0.19 or 2.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 329.77
Dow in Silver Ounces 18-Mar : 338.24
Change : -8.47 or -2.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,220.59
Dow Industrial 18-Mar : 11,858.52
Change : 362.07 or 3.1%

S&P 500 : 1,313.80
S&P 500 18-Mar : 1,279.20
Change : 34.60 or 2.7%

US Dollar Index : 76.234
US Dollar Index 18-Mar : 75.572
Change : 0.66 or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,748.60
Platinum Price Close 18-Mar : 1,723.60
Change : 25.00 or 1.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 750.50
Palladium Price Close 18-Mar : 730.90
Change : 19.60 or 2.7%


Quick look: Silver up 5.7% (two bucks) for the week. Stop fighting it, and climb aboard. Gold, up ten bucks but lots more fun coming in this ride. Gold/Silver ratio hitting new lows. Dow in Silver ounces hitting new lows. Dow and S&P500 sneaked up this week. Dollar index gained.

I don't want to hear any whining and whinging about GOLD today. Merciful heavens! It rose six days running and hit a new all- time-since-creation high this week. Give it a break. Closed above the 20 DMA ($1,421.58), losing 8.70 to $1,426.20.

Still trying to parse that Gold chart, what emergeth? A rectangular consolidation between 1308 and 1435. When it breaks out of that box, it'll add $110 so fast your head will be spinning like that girl in The Exorcist. (Right, I probably could have picked a more palatable comparison. Sorry.)

Never mind all that. I feel like I'm waking up from an evil spell, cast on me by the gold and silver bear wizards. "Expect it to go down! Expect it to go down!" they kept droning at me, then my brain woke up and said, "Are y'all CRAZY? We are in a primary uptrend, a bull market, and there is one and only one strategy for a bull market: buy, hold, and keep on buying because it's going higher!"

Mercy, I have fallen into the same trap I keep warning y'all against. It's a bull market, stop worrying about corrections. They won't amount to hill of baked beans. Get long - stay long-- get longer.

That brings us to SILVER. Stop doubting. It's running away, and about to run harder. Silver today was forced to give back 33c, but didn't give a flip and closed above 3700c anyway, at 3705.8c. Traded up in the aftermarket. Let's stop talking about corrections and start looking for, oh, 3900c, 4200c maybe, before that happens.

What are the floors? Silver must not close below 3650c, 3570c in a pinch. Gold wants to hold above $1,420, and $1,405 for sure. If y'all see the lower end of those prices, buy. Yes, someday, maybe soon, they will correct, but when they do simply buy more.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO touched more new lows this week. Closed today at 38.486. Shhhh -- Listen. Come close and I'll tell y'all something you won't hear anywhere else, but don't tell anybody. At 38.486 the ratio stands below its 10 year, below its 20 year, below its 30 year, below its 50 year, below its 60 year, and below its 110 year average. In fact, it's nearer the 220 year average than the 110 year. Put that into perspective: the 10 year average is 60.53, 22 points higher.

Friends, the big run has begun.


Those Biblical scholars among y'all will remember what weapon Samson used against the Philistines in the 15th chapter of Judges. Just to show you some technology never goes out of style, the Federal Reserve unlimbered Samson's weapon this week against all the heathen who trust not the dollar. Three Federal Reserve governors whacked them hard with Samson's weapon, and old Ben the Buffoon even jumped in with an announcement that he would in future hold quarterly press conferences to announce what the Fed is doing. Be still, my beating heart!

And Samson's weapon worked well enough to lift the dollar almost a full percentage point. Today the buck gained 57.8 basis points, climbing in fact above 76 resistance to roost at 76.234. Now the scrofulous dollar has lost a few feathers here lately, plucked and picked over by the market, but that turkey could still fly up to a high roost this week.

What do you reckon the Fed will do? Will they stop the printing presses when Quantative Easing 2 expires in June? Or will they do QE3? Can a mad dog stop drooling? Institutionally, politically, monetarily, economically, intellectually, those Keynesian dodderers can't do a blessed thing but keep on inflating. However, the dollar is due and overdue for a rally, on its way to oblivion. Did it reach a double bottom this week with last November's low? Might have. Might have, but needs to top 77 before I'll even consider it. I've been suckered one time too many by the dollar.

And, Buddy, you can HAVE that euro for my money. Ran straight up on news the EU had reached an agreement, maybe, to bail out Portugal but Portugal, amidst resignation of its government, says it doesn't need a bailout. Right, and pants don't need zippers, either. Here's the crazy-maker: on this, Portugal's bankruptcy brinkmanship, the ECB is making noises about RAISING interest rates. Well, that will certainly help the Portuguese, the Spanish, and whoever else is on the Financial Critical Care list. Reckon that's all the ECB can do to protect euro's exchange rate in the face of the inevitability it will flood the world with more euros bailing out its bankrupts.

Technically Euro yesterday lunged upside in what looked strong, and stopped at 1.422. It paused, and then fell like an anvil tossed out of a third story window, clean back to the sidewalk at 1.406 where where it bottomed yesterday. This has a sloppy, key-reversal feel to it. And that island reversal on the longer term chart remains in play. Only a close above 1.4244 would negate it's deadly warning.

NGM still have a leash on the yen. Rose a little today to 81.40/$ (122.85c/Y100).

STOCKS have now bulged their way clean up to the downtrend line and are threatening to break through it. That's like a dog with dentures growling at you. Watch out! He might gum you to death, if he doesn't fall asleep first or take a coughing fit.

Listen, I call 'em as I see 'em, and nobody with two good eyes can look at the Dow or the S&P500 and fail to see a broadening top that is begging to tunnel to the earth's core. Now those NGM may be able to make flatirons float airborne for a day or two, but I place my money on gravity in the long run.

Dow today rose 50.3 to 12,220.59. S&P rose 4.14 to 1,313.80. Before anything significant takes place here, Dow must first best the March high of 12,283.10 (intraday) and then in short order breach February's 12,391.29 high. I doubt it, BICBW.

On this day in 1894 Coxey's Army of the Unemployed set out from Ohio for Washington, DC. It was a year after the Panic of 1893, second year into a 4 year depression. In those days, friends, the imperial government bilked the people in a different way than they do today. Back then they did it with Deflation, but in our Enlightened Day they do it with Inflation. 6000 men finally reached Washington in April and the intensely sympathetic federal government (no change there) had the leaders arrested for walking on the grass at the Capitol (no kidding).

By the way, deflation was the deliberate policy of the Republican run government (owned by the plutocrats then, too.). The deflation had several causes, one of which was shrinking the huge issue of fiat money from the war, then resumption of gold redeemability in 1879. But before that the Crime of 1873 demonetized silver, leading to the devaluation of, say, 15% of the money supply. But you must understand and have compassion on the needs of the bondholders. They had bought those bonds during the war with good paper money, 50c in gold on the dollar, and what would happen to the national government's credit if they weren't paid back in appreciated dollars fully redeemable in gold? Why, it would have been a shameful catastrophe, so once again, the Treasury and the nation's prosperity were sacrificed. As the French like to say, "The more this here changes, the more the same thing." But they say it in French, of course.

Today is the celebration of the Annunciation to the Blessed Virgin Mary, the announcement that she would become the mother of Jesus Christ. Until not too many years ago this day marked the beginning of the year in many countries, such as England, where it is called "Lady Day."

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, March 24, 2011

Silver Price Must Hold Above 36.50 and Gold Price Above 1420

Gold Price Close Today : 1427.50
Change : 1.30 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 37.388
Change : 18.6 cents or 0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 38.18
Change : -0.156 or -0.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02619
Change : 0.000107 or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1754.30
Change : -3.00 or -0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 751.95
Change : 3.70 or 0.5%

S&P 500 : 1,309.66
Change : 5.86 or 0.4%

Dow In GOLD$ : $176.24
Change : $ 1.08 or 0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.526
Change : 0.052 or 0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 325.52
Change : 2.25 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial : 12,170.56
Change : 84.54 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index : 75.65
Change : -0.142 or -0.2%

Before he became sophisticated, before he even became sheriff of Mayberry, Andy Griffin was a comedian. In a priceless monolog entitled, "What It Was, Was Football" he plays a hick who had never before seen a football game. Imagine his confusion. Well, staring at these markets, I fell a lot the same way.

STOCKS, the absinthe of investment cocktails, gained popularity today. The Dow gained 0.93%, 84.54 points, to 12,170.56. S&P performed almost as well, up 0.72% (5.86 points) to 1,309.66. My jaw dropped. Well, here's the thing: there are people who think that Joan Rivers is funny, and people who think heavy metal is music. Likewise, there are folks who buy stocks and think they're an investment. What can I say?

I tell y'all, these currencies are more fun than a bucket of cockroaches, or a nail barrel full of scorpions. I love 'em.

Were I long euros, I would be shucking 'em faster than a politician saying good-bye to his girlfriend when a Washington Post photographer shows up. The chart shows that the euro has reached its November high, and like that November high has made a jumpy, sketchy Island reversal pattern. What is that? Market's headed up, then gaps up, leaving a space behind. Trades sideways a day or few, then falls, leaving a gap behind. This ain't island paradise, I promise, but a virtual guarantee of vastly lower prices. BUT I COULD BE WRONG. In fact, that is so often the case that instead of writing it out every time, from now on I'll just use the initials: BICBW.

The Japanese yen, is thanks to a multinational love-fest among Nice Government Men, behaving itself instead of flying to the moon and hamstringing the Japanese economy. Closed today at 80.936 yen to the dollar (123.55 cents/100 yen). Virtually unchanged.

Meanwhile the scrofulous US DOLLAR INDEX stubbed its itty toe today, and dropped 14.2 basis points to 75.652. I'm inclined to believe the dollar is forming a bottom here, but not on enough evidence to convict a dog of liking T-bones.

One should never underestimate the stupidity and arrogance of those in power. The morons running the European countries in 1914 allowed themselves to be drawn into a war that would kill millions and overthrow most of them. Why assume that Ben Bernanke and Co. are not prideful enough to stumble into destroying the dollar? They've got a good leg up on it.

Y'all thought silver and gold were going to make it easy for you, didn't you? Well, today slapped that notion out of all of us.

In an interview today with Jim Puplava of financialsense.com (aired tomorrow) he told me that silver margin requirements had been raised again. I can't find a press release on that, but it certainly would explain why silver and gold advanced, then hit a wall and slid down.

Overnight the GOLD PRICE bulged through $1,440 resistance than in New York hit a $1,447.15 high about 11:00. Around 12:30 somebody dropped a piano on gold's head, and it slid down as low as $1,424 in the after- market. On Comex it closed down $3.10 at $1,434.80. It has traded as low as $1,430 since then. You can get all sweaty about that, or view it merely as another validation of $1,425 support. And I don't want to become the sort of slouch who instead of thinking always blames everything on the Nice Government Men and their manipulations, but were I them (O, thank God, I am not!) I wouldn't want gold to close over $1,450 and confirm another breakout to attract more investors.

The gold price has no problems as long as it hovers higher than $1,420. Technically a break of that would be troublesome, but not fatal. On the upside the gold price still must beat $1,445 resistance and climb that $1,451 mountain. For now, all the momentum remains on gold's side, notwithstanding today's gyrations.

By the time Comex closed SILVER had digested another 18.6c to close at another -- yawn! -- new all time high of 3738.8c. Another new ratio low of 38.376 oz of silver to one ounce of gold. In the aftermarket silver has continued falling to 3718c.

Aww, come on! The silver price has risen 5 straight days. Today is no disaster. Still, to maintain respectability the silver price must remain above 3650c and in no case fall lower than 3600c.

Sure, this rise is longer in the tooth than Methuselah's dog, and sure, it will sometime end, but I'm beginning to wonder when. Struggling to fix some upside target, I saw that silver had closed well above its 2006 - 2008 - 2011 top channel line. When that happens, you flip the bottom line of the channel over, effectively doubling the channel width. Silver's channel is about 1200c wide, so if you flip the channel and add 1200c to 3109c where it broke out, you get close enough to 4200c to scare it to death.

I remind y'all that all this depends on the silver price holding above 3650c and the gold price above $1,420.

Over and over people keep asking me, "Should I buy silver now or wait for a correction?" Listen, I SELL silver and gold, so I am not likely to tell you not to buy it. Pass everything I say through that filter.

But the question has the wrong goal in mind. When you buy silver or gold you are not trying to hit a price POINT, but to take a long, large piece out of a primary trend upward move. Even if your timing is the worst, the upward trend will bail you out, so stop trying to look perfect to your sneering brother-in-law. Buy the primary trend and it WILL be profitable.

Otherwise here's what will happen: you will be tortured between fear and greed, fearful it will fall, greedy for it to fall further. You'll dilate and hesitate and finally not buy anything. So for all your cogitating and perspiration, you will only get to wave bye-bye to the Silver and Gold Train and brag to your brother-in-law how you ALMOST bought it.

On this day in 1882 in Berlin Robert Koch announced the discovery of the germ that "caused" tuberculosis. In line, however, with my policy of never accepting the official explanation, I demur to the germ theory of disease, as, it is rumoured, even Pasteur did in his latter days. Reason is simple: I have on my skin a zillion copies of say, the tuberculosis bacillus, but I don't get it. You have same, and get the disease. If it causes the disease, why don't I get it? Answer: it doesn't cause the disease. The weak immune system fails to fight off the attack of the opportunistic bacillus, which moves in and commandeers the surrounding countryside. Is it not more likely, as Pasteur's contemporary Antoine Bechamp argued, that bacteria change forms (pleomorphism) and that their forms are not constant but change with their environment? That throws the cause back onto the immune system failure.

Whoa, y'all don't let me slow you down. Just keep on dousing your hands and bodies with those anti- bacterial soaps and other poisons. BICBW, so don't worry even a little bit!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, March 23, 2011

The Silver Price Broke Out Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1437.90
Change : 10.40 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 37.202
Change : 0.931 cents or 2.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 38.65
Change : -0.705 or -1.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02587
Change : 0.000464 or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1757.30
Change : 17.00 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 748.25
Change : 10.35 or 1.4%

S&P 500 : 1,297.54
Change : 3.77 or 0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.75
Change : $ (0.27) or -0.2%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.405
Change : -0.013 or -0.2%

Dow in SILVER oz : 324.88
Change : 1.73 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,086.02
Change : 67.39 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 75.93
Change : 0.493 or 0.7%

Sometimes no matter how much you feel like dragging your feet and holding back, you have to cast aside your reservations and follow the technical rules.

I mean that markets are screwy. Stocks should have tanked, silver and gold should have corrected, and the very franticness of these markets keeps whispering in my ear, "Something ugly, something big, is happening where we can't see it." But I can't fight it any longer, and here's why.

First, the SILVER PRICE broke out today, plainly, undeniably, and not for some little piddling move. It closed 3.2% above the previous (9 March 3604.3c) high, at 3720.2c, up 93.1c on Comex today alone.

Next, the GOLD PRICE has reached its 1 March high ($1,437.20). Comex rose $10.40 today and came to rest at $1,437.90. Last missing piece of confirmation is a gold price close 2% above 3 January or $1,451. You'll see that soon enough, unless bottom falls out of silver and gold prices tomorrow.

Meanwhile the Nice Government Men are in Hog Heaven manipulating the yen, euro, and dollar. Dollar index rose 49.3 basis points today, a big move of 0.63%, to end at 75.927. Yen barely moved, up 0.05% to 80.916 yen to the dollar ($123.58 cents to 100 yen). Euro played snooze and lose, down 0.61% to 1.4088. Euro may have left behind an island reversal, but can't tell until tomorrow. (For charts, see www.stockcharts.com, using symbols "$xeu", "$xjy", and "$usd".) Dollar's next move ought to be up, but who can read the minds of Nice Government Men, assuming of course they have minds.

STOCKS began the day hanging their heads and ready to take a guilty beating, but about 12:30 a "friend" came along and took them up to 12,086.02 (up 67.39) and 1,297.54, up 3.77. Today's gain does nothing at all for pulling stocks out of their precarious position. Last 3 days on the 5 day chart look like something from Outer Space, two days practically dead flat, hovering just above 12,000 like snake doctors over a spring.

I don't know anything except I don't want to own stocks. Yes, technically the Dow climbed above its 20 DMA (12,038.04), but that decline from the February high simply does not look complete.

The GOLD PRICE cleared $1,430 resistance about 4:00 a.m. New York time and by NY open had traded up to $1,434. It took a small hit back to test that 1430 resistance ("final kiss good-bye"), then shot straight up to $1,440.90 and traded sidewise the rest of the day. Comex close caught gold $10.40 dearer than yesterday at $1,437.90.

I can't stand in the way of strength like this. I bought gold today, and will buy more tomorrow if it doesn't run away.

SILVER, sweet metal of the moon, you have me utterly baffled, but who dares stand athwart the path of such power?

Once the silver price crossed 3660c resistance about 10:00 a.m. it marched right ahead, pushing through 3700c like John Wayne pushing through swinging doors in a saloon, and its progress never found a check until 3740c. Comex found silver -- with a telescope -- 93.1c higher at 3720.2c.

Gold/silver ratio hit a new low today at 38.65 -- yet another sign of great strength.

Silver seems to have set its mind on reaching 4000c, maybe 4200c or 4400c. Higher, in any event. Higher, against all currents.

Oh, yeah, there will come a day when a panic bites and everybody runs the other way, but not yet. For now the steed has the bit in its mouth and will run away.

Don't forget we need confirmation through higher gold and silver prices tomorrow.

Here's is something yet weightier to think on. On this day March, 1775, to the Virginia House of Burgesses meeting in St. John's Church in Richmond, Patrick Henry spoke to persuade the house to mobilize for military action against the British. The speech is perhaps the most eloquent, most heart-moving you will ever read, filled with echoes of the Scriptures Henry had fed on since his childhood, but not as quotations alien to his matter, but as the warp and woof of life and action and character. Listen:

"It is in vain, sir, to extenuate the matter. Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace -- but there is no peace. The war is actually begun. The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field. Why stand we here idle? What is it the gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so sweet, or peace so dear, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me liberty, or give me death!"

Later elected Virginia's wartime governor, Henry seemed four men. His energy, preparations, and activities reached in all directions. But most appealing of all, when he could retire from politics, he gladly did, to spend more time doing what he most enjoyed: romping on the floor with some of his seventeen children.

Small wonder more Americans thought of Henry as the Father of their Country rather than Washington.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Gold Price Must Close Clean Through $1,435, Then Advance to $1,451

Gold Price Close Today : 1427.50
Change : 1.30 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 36.271
Change : 0.269 cents or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 39.36
Change : -0.258 or -0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02541
Change : 0.000165 or 0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1740.30
Change : -6.60 or -0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 737.90
Change : -9.50 or -1.3%

S&P 500 : 1,293.77
Change : -4.61 or -0.4%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.04
Change : $ (0.40) or -0.2%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.419
Change : -0.019 or -0.2%

Dow in SILVER oz : 331.36
Change : -0.52 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial : 12,018.63
Change : -17.90 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index : 75.45
Change : 0.044 or 0.1%

As I expected, the GOLD PRICE didn't do very much today, merely moved sidewise. Sure, it gained $1.30 on Comex, and defended an attack all the way down to $1,419.90, but it snapped right back to close at $1,427.50.

That does not qualify as a rousing, unequivocal breakout over $1,425, but considering where gold was coming from in a long rise, it saved face.

Stakes are very high here. Either gold closes clean through $1,435, then advances to $1,451 (2% above the 3 January high), or it has formed a broadening top. That consists of a series of slightly higher or even highs, accompanied by slightly lower lows, so that the chart shows a megaphone opening to the right. Should that be what gold has in mind, then it has quite a correction in store. However, it would need to close below the last low, $1,308, to confirm that.

So gold is stuck in between, and we can't say whether it will rise or fall unless it closes above $1,436 or below $1,420.

If I had to guess, I'd say gold will rise, but I'm just a natural born fool, just guessing.

The SILVER PRICE added another 26.9c today to close at an altogether new high of 3627.1c. That close also took the gold/silver ratio to a new low, 39.36, marginally.

Silver above 3650c will run away like half-broke horses pulling a steel-wheeled wagon over gravel. Below 3540c silver will act like the water in your bathroom sink when you pull the plug.

Right now, the momentum favours higher prices.

Think and recall: primary uptrend. Bull market. Several more years for silver and gold to rise. Don't let go of that, no matter how markets bounce up and down.

Here's another interesting but small fact: the wholesale buy side discount on US 90% coin rose today from 75c to 70c. A tiny sign, but may prove meaningful.

Stocks aquitted themselves most raggedly today. Down as much as 36 points, the Dow in the end climbed the last of four hills to close down only 17.9 points at 12,018.63 (S&P500 lost 4.61 at 1,293.77). Yet again the Dow deals with the magical 12,000, so fraught with juju in the investment jungle.

Appears that yesterday marked the limit of stocks' recovery from the 11,555.48 low of the last downleg. Strengthen that notioning, the Dow closed below its 50 DMA (12,029), and more, volume dried up yesterday, never a good sign for a rising market. Finally, it remains below the downtrend line from the February high. This could be worse -- we could tie anchors and ploughshares about its ankles -- but it's quite bad enough as is. Only hint it might rise lies in the MACD, where the Dow may be struggling to turn up.

Imagine a lottery where not only do you have to pay for a ticket, you have to pay the winner as well. That's stocks. Stay away.

Idea keeps fidgeting in my head that the Japanese earthquake shook stock markets world-wide and they may not recover soon. Nikkei closed today at 9608, down form a 10,891 February high by almost 12%.

The Nice Government Men from many nations have put their heads together and seem to be jimmying the Yen market nicely. Eded down today 0.07% at 80.91 yen to the dollar (123.59 cents to 100 yen). They have beaten it back from the deadly 124 boundary.

THE US DOLLAR INDEX added a scootsh today, 4.4 basis points to 75.445. Here we go again. The buck stands at its November low, and will either find footing in a double bottom or sink clean thru that mark in a race toward, first, 74.23 (Nov. 2009 low) or 70.70 (2008 low).

It's ridiculous trying to forecast a currency exchange rate technically, because central banks manipulate all rates. The dollar has sunk from 120 in 2001 to 70.70 in 2008. Y'all think that happened by accident to a bank that can print or withdraw as many dollars as it pleases? It happened because somebody in the Bush (and now Obama) regime decided to let the dollar depreciate. What? You, there! Mushroom! You object to that policy? You whine that it will pauperize orphans and widows and pensioners? Quiet, mushroom! You can't make a central bank omelette without breaking eggs, and if you're not careful, we might just throw in some mushrooms, too.

On this day in 1765 the English parliament passed the Stamp Act, the first direct tax on American colonists. It was NOT popular, and parliament repealed it a year later.

Speaking of stamps, they tell a fairly accurate tale of inflation. When I was a boy, a first class stamp cost 4 c. On this day in 1981 stamps went from 15c to 18c. On this day in 2002 (I think this is National Raise Postage Rate day) the rate was raised from 34c to 37c. Today it costs 44c, and congress ain't about to repeal that.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, March 21, 2011

Silver and Gold Prices Today Sort-of/Kind-of Broke Out to the Upside

Gold Price Close Today : 1426.20
Change : 10.30 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 36.002
Change : 94.2 cents or 2.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 39.61
Change : -0.771 or -1.9%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02524
Change : 0.000482 or 1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1746.90
Change : 23.30 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.40
Change : 16.50 or 2.3%

S&P 500 : 1,298.38
Change : 19.18 or 1.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.46
Change : $ 1.35 or 0.8%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.440
Change : 0.065 or 0.8%

Dow in SILVER oz : 334.33
Change : 4.86 or 1.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,036.53
Change : 178.01 or 1.5%

US Dollar Index : 75.42
Change : -0.219 or -0.3%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES today sort-of/kind-of broke out to the upside. Don't get all sweaty, now, they still need to confirm the move with higher closes, but certainly it's a start.

To clarify for y'all the issues, consider: the deadly double top. A B-wave or upward reaction that's part of an A-B-C corrective wave, can appear very, very strong. It can make a double top. That is a fatal cap on any market, followed by loads of down-time. On the other hand, if it clears that last top, then it has broken out upward, and we just don't know until (a) it confirms the breakout with a close 2% above it, or (b) it makes the double top then fails to pierce and breaks down.

I am not ashamed to admit I don't know yet which way 'twill break.

The GOLD PRICE closed over its 20 DMA ($1,416.50) on Comex, adding $10.30 to $1,426.20 -- above $1,425 resistance. And the MACD may be turning up. There's a good chance that gold will clear $1,435 and make another large rally, $1,500, maybe $1,600, but first it must clear $1,435.

However, today probably marked the end of an upleg, so gold might fiddle sideways a day or two before continuing upward. A close below $1,405 negates all that upward hopefulness.

That silver is relentless. Since last Wednesday's low about 3360c it has climbed to a high today at 3618c. Comes gave it another 94.2c today [sic] for a 3600.2c close. Silver's strength has taken the gold/silver ratio back down near its low. Closing ratio today was 39.614.

Even if silver aims to move higher from here, tomorrow it will likely remain calm or even fall a bit, trying to digest the last days' gains.

Rubbing in what I wrote on Friday about never selling a bull market position -- if you had looked at silver and gold last week, you'd have bet respectable money they were headed lower. If so, and you had sold your long-term bull market position, you'd be keening, wailing, and mourning today. As I said, if you can pick the primary trend and ride it, that's plenty profitable enough. Don't worry about catching the little zigs and zags of trading.

What a difference perspective makes!

Portfolios and plans it makes or breaks!

Behold, the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Up a monstrous (in its Middle-English sense) 178.01 points or 1.5% to 12,036.53. Wow-O-wow. Sounds peppy, don't it?

Until you look at a chart and the numbers. Dow's recent peak was around 12,400. Today's high roughly reaches a little less than the common 61.2% correction. And gazing at the graph even one who cannot ken Picasso grasps at once the INTACT downtrend line from that February high.

Yes, yes, it did touch the 20 day moving average (12,048.75) today, but didn't close through it. Closed by pennies above the 50 DMA (12,022.13).

Stocks remain locked in a downtrend, paid cheerleaders notwithstanding. I'd as soon buy stocks now as take a goblet of wine from the hand of Lucretia Borgia.

Fellow mushrooms, what do y'all want to bet that all the central banks are working together to squash the yen's rise? From 128.79 cents per 100 yen (77.645 yen per dollar) to 123.35 (81.07 yen per dollar). 'Tain't no accidents in currency exchange rates.

US DOLLAR INDEX lost another 21.9 basis points (0.28%) today and now trades at 75.42. Clearly the Japanese earthquake has helped speed the dollar along its journey to the center of the earth.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, March 18, 2011

Gold Price Must Break $1425 Resistance

Gold Price Close Today : 1,415.90
Gold Price Close 11-Mar : 1,421.60
Change : -5.70 or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 3506
Silver Price Close 11-Mar : 3593.3
Change : -87.30 or -2.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.39
Gold Silver Ratio 11-Mar : 39.56
Change : 0.82 or 2.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02476
Silver Gold Ratio 11-Mar : 0.02528
Change : -0.00051 or -2.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 172.88
Dow in Gold Dollars 11-Mar : $ 175.14
Change : $ (2.26) or -1.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.363
Dow in Gold Ounces 11-Mar : 8.472
Change : -0.11 or -1.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 337.75
Dow in Silver Ounces 11-Mar : 335.19
Change : 2.56 or 0.8%

Dow Industrial : 11,841.52
Dow Industrial 11-Mar : 12,044.40
Change : -202.88 or -1.7%

S&P 500 : 1,279.20
S&P 500 11-Mar : 1,304.28
Change : -25.08 or -1.9%

US Dollar Index : 75.572
US Dollar Index 11-Mar : 76.706
Change : -1.13 or -1.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,723.60
Platinum Price Close 11-Mar : 1,781.00
Change : -57.40 or -3.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 730.90
Palladium Price Close 11-Mar : 762.50
Change : -31.60 or -4.1%


First, look at the Table of the Week above, and carefully observe the winners and losers. Whatever else happened, at the end of the week the scoreboard shows plus or minus, just that simple.

The GOLD PRICE shone today, even climbing over its 20 day moving average ($1,424.40) to finish Comex $11.90 higher at $1,415.90. Closely attend: this was positive and constructive but not dispositive. Gold showed power and friends, but not enough to BREAK resistance at $1,425. Oh, it got CLOSE, as close as $1,423.50, but it didn't BREAK through $1,425. Until that happens, the gold price is merely bouncing off the $1,383 low preparing for another downleg.

Now if that does happen -- if the gold price pierces $1,425 and closes sharply higher, heading for the last high at $1,436, and then betters that, well, gold has a rally on its hands. Until we see that, the downtrend in force remains in force. And today's rally only brought the gold price up to touch the downtrend line.

On Comex the SILVER PRICE rallied magnificently, up 80c to close at 3506c. Great job, clearing 3500c resistance AND climbing through the 20 DMA (3451c). Great job, but it only climbed to the downtrend line. Needed for a breakout is a close above 3600c confirmed speedily by a close above 3671, the last intraday high.

Apparently I confuse folks, because all my writing lately about silver and gold in a corrective downtrend has got them calling asking me if they ought to sell out their bull market position and buy back when they go lower. My answer never varies:

"You are about to make the biggest mistake of your financial life."

Y'all are not smart enough to sell and buy back lower, and neither am I nor most of the folks you'll ever meet. Some people believe they can consistently predict a market, but they are wrong. Only a very few do it successfully. How many 80 year old retired day traders do you know? Not as many as were forced into retirement because they lost all their capital.

The notion of selling now and buying back lower betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of our investment strategy. Investing Rule No. 1 is, "Always align your investments with the primary trend, the trend that will last for 15 or 20 years, whether up or down." Think stocks, 1982 - 2000. Or silver and gold, 1960 - 1980. Or, think stocks since 2000, or silver and gold 1980 - 2001.

You will always make more money WAITING than you will ever make TRADING. Our strategy is not to catch every little up and down jiggle, nor even the BIG jiggles, but to cut a long, long piece out of a powerful uptrend that will rise 25 or 30 times its beginning price.

You sell out, and here's what will happen. You are just gimcrack sure and certain the market is about to drop. You sell, and it obliges your confidence by rising 30%. Whoops. You just LOST your bull market position, and will either walk away in disgust to miss the rest of the bull market, or you will buy back in having missed that big rise and cost yourself a bundle.

On the other hand, say that you sell and it does drop. Will you buy back in when it drops 20%? 30%? 40%? No, no, now you are investing genius now and you just KNOW it will drop 50%, so when it only drops 23%, you miss it and watch it shoot thru the price where you sold it. You have now lost your bull market position, and are sitting on a pile of rapidly depreciating Ben-Bucks.

Friends, stop and think what y'all are doing, and don't change horses or strategies in mid-river, especially when it's at flood stage. Y'all made a good decision to invest in silver and gold for the life of the primary uptrend (bull market). You will sell at the top, and in the meantime increase your profits by swapping between silver and gold. That's a workable and profitable plan, and if you stick with that simple goal, you will make bushel-basketfuls of profits. Be patient, keep your eyes on the horizon, sit on your silver and gold. Your strategy is working, and will keep on working. Don't mess with it, cause it's not broken.

Right on cue those Nice Government Men from Japan hit the yen market and pushed it down 1.49% today. Or maybe it was just profit-takers scraping some money off the table and into their laps before they drove out to Long Island for their Friday martini. In this case, I'm betting mostly on the NGM.

Either way, it didn't help the dollar. Euro gapped -- yes, gapped-- up to prove beyond all controversy that it intends to leave the earth behind, no matter how many bankrupt member nations it needs to lift with it. Closed today 1.4182, up 0.77%. Next stop is the last high at 1.4281.

The US DOLLAR INDEX tanked 46.9 basis points (0.6%) today and is trading at 75.572. It's deeply ungentlemanly to say, "I told y'all so," but if y'all were betting on the dollar, y'all deserve it.

In one mighty bound -- no, no, bound is UP so let's make that PRATFALL -- the dollar reached the November intraday low of 75.63 and exceeded it. Good work, Bumbling Ben.

If the dollar can't hold its perch here -- and it won't -- then twill seek the Dec. 2009 low at 74.23, then go for 70.70 from 2008. Yet I keep telling myself that SOMETIME here the pendulum is due to swing the other way taking the dollar up and silver and gold down. I don't mean on any long-term basis, only on a short-term correction. Yet no such dollar strength has materialized. Shucks, not only has the dollar NOT pulled on its Superman suit, it can't even find a phone booth to change in.

Responding to what I wrote yesterday about the guru who keeps misdirecting his listeners into stocks, a friend wrote, "I'm watching as mankind goes from bleeding itself with small, self-inflicted cuts to stabbing itself through its own heart with a Bowie knife." I take no pleasure in responding, "I know what you mean." I've been watching that same tragedy for decades. As Louis Armstrong said, "Some people don't know and you can't tell 'em." It starts with fiat money and central banks and metastasizes to government education and training otherwise intelligent people to depend on "experts" for every decision, robbing them of their dignity and independence. Mercy, why not live off a government check? Why would I want to work? What other value does life hold than money? Why would I want independence? Don't that come with responsibility? Not for me!

Yeah, mankind are the best argument I know to prove original sin. But let's get back to markets.

STOCKS today resembled a girl who can dance very well in her high school productions, but when she tries out for the Rockettes she's painfully outclassed. For the week it was the same story. At its low the Dow had dropped nearly 500 points from last Friday's close. Today merely carried it a bit above the 50% retracement level.

Look at the chart ("$indu" on stockcharts.com). The 20 day moving average (12,066) has turned down and is barrelling toward the 50 DMA (12,015). When the 20 crosses the 50, momentum will be locked downhill. This plunge will likely reach 11,000 before it stops.

Today the Dow gained 83.93 to close at 11,858.52. That sounds pretty snappy until you find out that the high was 11,927. Not enough buyers wanted to hang around for prices above 11,900. Dow's last two-and-a-half days were correcting the previous fall. Fun's over now -- time to go back to work falling toward the earth's core.

Stocks are still the Eau de skunk in the Great Investment Parfumerie.

AMERICAN CULTURAL MILESTONES: On this day in 1961 was born the Poppin' Fresh Pillsbury Dough Boy.

On this day in 1986 the US Treasury Department announced that a clear, polyester thread would be woven into bills in an effort to thwart counterfeiters. What effort would be made to thwart the US Treasury in printing mountains of counterfeit "money" was not announced.

Y'all enjoy your weekend. Argentums et aurum compared sunt --

-- Silver and gold must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com



Thursday, March 17, 2011

Odds Favor More Downside for the Gold Price

Gold Price Close Today : 1404.00
Change : 8.00 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.260
Change : (21.1) cents or -0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.98
Change : 0.483 or 1.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02440
Change : -0.000291 or -1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1701.00
Change : 5.00 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 708.65
Change : 11.75 or 1.7%

S&P 500 : 1,273.72
Change : 16.84 or 1.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.36
Change : $ 1.41 or 0.8%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.386
Change : 0.068 or 0.8%

Dow in SILVER oz : 343.68
Change : 4.73 or 1.4%

Dow Industrial : 11,774.59
Change : 161.29 or 1.4%

US Dollar Index : 75.99
Change : -0.691 or -0.9%

The GOLD PRICE bounced off its 50 DMA day before yesterday and poked thru $1,400 resistance today. By Comex closing it had climbed $8.00 to $1,404.

Ladies and gentlemen, I love gold. I want everybody to shuck that paper that Wall Street and Washington fleece them with and buy some gold. But today merely constituted a countertrend rally in a downtrend. To gainsay that, the gold price would have to pierce its 20 DMA ($1,412.80) for starters, then clear $1,425, and keep right on climbing. I NEVER say "never," so won't say it this time, either, but I will say "right unlikely." Odds favor more downside for the gold price. 'Tain't the end of the world, it's just a correction.

The SILVER PRICE extended a sideways move today, but eroding. Comex lost 21.21c to close at 3426c. Low was 33.83, no lower than Tuesday or Wednesday, and that fell early in the day. But the silver price couldn't clear 3450c, although 3400c held up well.

I asked the Oracle of Dogwood Mudhole about silver, but he only said, "Make sure you finish one thing before you start another, and keep your fingers away from the business end of that mowing machine."

It's always chancy business translating for an Oracle, but the way I read that he's saying, the silver trend shows no sign of reversal yet, so just wait until it does, or you may feed your wallet into a garbage disposal. Or some such.

Underneath silver needs to remain above 3350c. It has no strong support before 3120c. 50 DMA stands around 3105c.

Rest easy, silver and gold prices are merely undergoing a correction, and no market shoots straight for the sky. Every now and then markets have to pause to digest the gains they've gobbled down.

The Japanese yen has jumped 8% in the last week and today hit an all time high against the dollar. The soaring yen has created trouble for them clever Harvard MBAs who were borrowing low-interest yen to invest elsewhere -- the yen carry trade. Suddenly the yen costs a lot more, and as they unwind those trades and scurry to cover those yen shorts, more fuel is added to the yen's fire. Will the Bank of Japan intervene to keep its currency from rising more? Can a duck swim? Is a pig's rear pork? Do crack- heads break and enter? Of course they will.

By the way, I confused y'all by quoting the yen two different ways. It is quoted as "yen per 100 cents" or "cents per 100 yen." If the "yen per 100 cents" rate is 79.26, then the "cents per 100 yen" rate is 100/.7926 = 126.2 yen. I'll try to restrain myself in the future.

The euro rose 0.7% today while the dollar got busy with a claw hammer and nails nailing shut the lid on its own coffin. Today it fell 69.1 basis points to 75.99, that is, below the March low. One must conclude that the moonstruck dollar has decided to visit 75.60, then 70.70.

The earthquake did not do this, the Federal Reserve did.

My-o-my-dee-my! US stocks rallied today, and y'all can expect the Wall Street cheerleaders to be crowing and preening tomorrow, doing their best to lure more victims to their financial destruction. The Dow continues its Speedy-Slinky descent to Avernus. Today the Dow gained 161.29 to 11,774.59 (up 1.39%) while the S&P500 bent over, grabbed its bootstraps, and pulled itself up 16.84 points (1.34%) to 1,273.72.

For years and years I was an unteachable fool and kept on drawing to inside straits and making bets that could not possibly pay off. I bought my learning dear. Now I'm not so much proud that I've learned a little something as I am sorry for all those folks who are constantly deceived by "gurus" and kept away from catching on. Institutions and media work together to keep them victimized, so they can feed on them.

Take well known radio Financial guru A. A has done a fine job getting people out of debt, and if he'd just stick to that, he'd bless folks. But, no, he discovered stocks in the early 1990s -- without discovering the principle of the primary trend -- made money, and confounded a bull market with investing genius. Hence 11 years into a bear market he's still sending his victims into stocks and bad-mouthing gold, because nobody ever taught him the first principle of investing, "always align your investments with the primary trend."

Stocks remain the industrial-strength ipecac in the Investment Medicine Cabinet.

A kind Greek wrote to clean my plow over the astonishing mistake I made yesterday. Cretan Knossos was not part of the Mycenaean civilization, but a precursor perhaps brought down by the Mycenaeans.

The culture on ancient Crete is properly called "Minoan" after the legendary king. It flourished in the Bronze Age from about the 27th century B.C. to the 15th century B.C. It may have met its final end thanks to a gigantic volcanic eruption.

Or to invasion by the Mycenaeans from the Greek mainland. The Mycenaean period in Greece was also in the Bronze Age, lasting from 1600 B.C. to 1100 B.C., and is probably the setting of Homer's epics.

To confound the Minoan with the Mycenaean is to make just a tiny mistake of, Oh, a millennium. What's a thousand years among friends?

But don't let my ignorant mistake scare you. If you EVER get a chance to visit Greece or Crete, go! It's worth the trip for the Kalamata olives alone, but when you add all the history and ruins and artifacts and the kind people, it becomes the trip of a lifetime.

This day in 1905 Eleanor Roosevelt married Franklin D. Roosevelt. Now here's a question that would stump a log: which one got the worst deal?

On this day in 1921 Comrade Lenin declared the New Economic Policy. The zealous Reds had installed communism in Russia successfully, with only one drawback: the economy collapsed. To gain breathing room Lenin lifted the controls long enough for the Russians' naturally enterprising natures to supply markets again thru small businesses, farms, etc. Agricultural production soared and the economy briefly recovered, but the policy was abandoned in 1928 by Comrade Stalin. Once again, history proves that socialism/communism can only produce two things in abundance: shortages and executions.

Hey, wait a minute! Isn't a national central bank like the Federal Reserve one plank in the Communist Manifesto? And wouldn't that mean that we have a, well, you-know-what kind of economy?

SHHHHHH. Someone may be listening in Homeland Security. Argentums et aurum comparanda sunt --

-- Silver and gold must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Gold Price Dropped Through It's 20 and 50 DMA, How Far Can It Fall?

Gold Price Close Today : 1396.00
Change : 3.40 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.471
Change : 35.5 cents or 1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.50
Change : -0.322 or -0.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02469
Change : 0.000195 or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1696.00
Change : -10.50 or -0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 696.90
Change : -6.40 or -0.9%

S&P 500 : 1,256.86
Change : -25.01 or -2.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $171.99
Change : $ (3.98) or -2.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.320
Change : -0.192 or -2.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 336.93
Change : -7.03 or -2.0%

Dow Industrial : 11,614.44
Change : -240.98 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index : 76.65
Change : 0.324 or 0.4%

Today was the day the metals markets practiced dribbling with dead cats the GOLD PRICE rose $3.40 to $1,396 on the Comex, and the SILVER PRICE re-captured 35.5c to end at 3447.1c.

Focus on the GOLD/SILVER RATIO. High today at 41.76 pierced the 20 DMA (1st warning of a trend change), but closed at 40.79, not above the 20 DMA. All the momentum indicators say that the ratio has turned sharply up. For silver and for gold that can only mean a sharp reaction, "sharp" meaning it falls fast and quick.

What jumps out of the gold chart? It dropped plumb thru its 20 DMA and to its 50 DMA in a single bound, single day. Today's $3.40 rise is a mere pause, nothing more. An aftershock will come. Lateral support at $1,380 lies near the 50 DMA at $1,378.92.

The SILVER PRICE jostled with its 3416c 20 DMA today, and closed above it at 3447.1c. No lateral support intercedes until 3120c, maybe 3174c.

Be patient, patient, patient. Loads of knowing goofs will begin spouting gleefully that the "bubble" in silver and gold has burst, they were right from the beginning not to buy, and other like drooling drivel. Ignore it all. Why should you listen to anyone who cannot tell a bubble from a bull market? Only reason I can think of is that you want to lose money like they will.

The SILVER and GOLD PRICE remain in a primary uptrend. Corrections are normal. Task of wisdom, judgment, and discernment now is to abide patiently until a bottom cometh.

I sure hope those folks are right about the Japanese Yen rising because of yen being repatriated to rebuild, because the Yen rose 2.2% today to close at 125.9 to the US dollar. Chart is ridiculous. If I were one of the honorable Japanese Nice Government Men, I would send housekeeping down to clean out the Bank of Japan's basement and throw onto that fire every yen I could get, then make up some more. A country with an export-driven economy can't afford a currency gaining 2% a day.

Meanwhile the Euro dropped 2/3 of one percent today, giving the scrofulous US dollar room to rise 32.4 basis points to 76.652. Dollar is still in the "Maybe It Will Rally" game for one more round, but must not close below 76.37.

Fiat currencies! Snort! They're every one sorry as gully dirt.

STOCKS in the US are beginning to resemble their Japanese cousins, but lack the excuse of an earthquake. As I warned, this leg down will be blitz-fast for stocks. Dow today misplaced some 240.98 points or 2.903% to perch at last at 11,614.44. In other words, it fell from yesterday's 11,855 through 11,800 and 11,700 and nearly thru 11,600. In fact, the low touched 11,555.48. Hemorrhages, bandages, iodine, tourniquets: that's the stock investor's lot. (S&P fell 1.95%, 25.01 points to 1,256.86). This might carry as low at 10,900.

Stocks remain the Edsel in the Great Investment Automobile Museum.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, March 15, 2011

The Gold Price Fell Clean Through Three Supports, Further Than I Expected to Close at $1,392.60

Gold Price Close Today : 1392.60
Change : (32.00) or -2.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.116
Change : (170.00) cents or -4.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.82
Change : 1.044 or 2.6%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02450
Change : -0.000643 or -2.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1705.60
Change : -46.70 or -2.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 703.30
Change : -43.50 or -5.8%

S&P 500 : 1,281.87
Change : -14.52 or -1.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $175.98
Change : $ 1.97 or 1.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.513
Change : 0.095 or 1.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 347.50
Change : -3.86 or -1.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,855.42
Change : -137.74 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index : 76.34
Change : -0.013 or 0.0%

On one fell swoop the GOLD PRICE fell $32 (Comex closed $1,392.60), clean through support at $1,415, $1,405, $1,400, and as low as $1,382.50, even further than my expected $1,393.

Bear in mind that $1,380 is strong support for gold, and co-incidentally the 50 DMA stands at $1,378.92. Below that ask whether $1,355 will catch it, or whether gold must drop lower still in a major correction.

In other currencies, markets did not smile on gold today. In Euros the GOLD PRICE fell to 997, touching but not breaking through its 200 DMA and extending a downtrend begun after the December 2010 top.

Gold's yen chart has swooned, falling from 11,880 to 11,270 today, below its 20 and 50 DMAs and hovering above the 200 DMA. Perhaps a blind optimist might deny that gold will fall further in yen, but he would be alone.

Since May of 2009 gold's 150 [sic] day moving average has served as the unyielding safety net of every gold decline, yes, every one. Whether that will prove true for this decline remains to be seen, but the 150 DMA marks time now at $1,345.32, so that becomes a reasonable target. For a larger-degree correction, reckon with $1,250.

My misgivings about platinum and palladium bore sad fruit today. Palladium dropped 4.75% ($46.70) to $1.705.60. Palladium lost more than any market except the Japanese Nikkei, down 5.8% ($43.50) to 703.30. Owch.

Ever more volatile SILVER PRICE took a mighty whipping today, with rods, bullwhips, and barbed wire. It smashed resistance at 3400c from last Friday and fell to 33.54 on the New York open. Not the world's end, however, as buyers carried silver back to 3460c. But the nose-dive had wounded morale too deeply for a strong comeback. Comex closed 170c shy of yesterday's close, and stopped at 3411.6c. Gold dropped 2.25% while silver dropped 4.75%.

What I said about the Dow above applieth also to silver: when you climb straight up, you don't leave footholds behind for the way down. Silver's first appears about 3200c, then 3120c.

The SILVER PRICE could lose as much as 35% from its 3671c peak, falling to 2385c. If gold lost 12% it would hit $1,264, call it $1,250. Don't y'all bother sending me those smoking e-mails bawling me out for "betraying" precious metals. Am I your enemy because I tell you the truth? I don't swallow humiliating corrections any better than y'all, but I remember the great H.L. Hunt's words, "Never get down in defeat, and never get elated in victory."

Rather, sleep well, knowing that SILVER and GOLD remain in a primary uptrend (bull market) that will run another three to 10 years, and that you own a bunch of it. Kiss your wife or husband, your children, enjoy your supper, and thank God for peace.

No pleasure dwells in reporting a day like today. Too much pain, too many proud struck in their pride.

The goofy US DOLLAR INDEX is holding on at that 76.40-ish low it made eight days ago. High today was 77.04, low came at 76.272, and right now it's trading down 1.3 basis points at 76.336.

Chart plainly shows a double bottom with yesterday. Dollar tried to rise today, but met strong fire at 77 and retreated to yesterday's low. Looking at the 3 month chart we notice that the dollar yesterday fell beneath its ten day moving average (76.63) and tried to climb above it again today, but without any success.

Should the dollar fail at 76.25, some support remains at 76.125, the 7 March intraday low. If it breaks 76.125, then 75.60 is the next target, and much, much lower..

Don't underestimate the stakes: the buck is straddling its uptrend line from the 2008 low (70.70). If it cannot walk that tightrope, it dives for 70.

Meanwhile the euro has stalled at 1.3999 (up 0.51%). about the locale of its last high. It's a gappy, jumpy chart, but I have to admit an uptrend, as little as I trust it.

The yen gapped up today to 123.85 yen to the dollar (80.74 cents to the yen). Not far overhead lies the last (October) high at 124.48. Yesterday I laid off the levitating yen to my suspicions that Nice Government Men from all countries were working together to keep the yen from melting down. Alternative explanation is that as with the 1995 Japanese Earthquake, markets expect Japanese will have to bring yen home for rebuilding, increasing demand for yen from other currencies. Take your pick.

The Japanese stock market fell off a cliff with the earthquake. From Friday a week ago at 10,768.43 the Nikkei fell as low as 8,227 today, and closed at 8,605.15, down 20% in 7 days.

STOCKS in the US didn't do much better. At one point today the Dow touched 11,696.25, down 297 points from yesterday's close. It rose from that low early in the day to close at 11,855.42, down only 137.74 (1.15%). andP500 lost 14,52 (1.12%) and closed at 1,281.87.

The Dow is falling down steps like a Slinky in a hurry. Today from the open with its great long slide the Dow broke the 11,900 support of the past two days. Now 11,700 is support, but no lateral support stands there for purchase. That's the trouble with climbing straight up: you don't leave any footholds for the way down.

Dow's first serious support comes at the November high of 11,450, and after that at 10,900. And this downleg the Dow is presently enjoying is a third leg down, the Serious One. Adding woe to wailing, the Dow crashed through its 50 DMA 3 days ago, so all its momentum pulls toward the earth's core, AND volume is rising.

Stocks will fall much further before they find a safe and chastened place to roost. Stocks remain the out-of-date Cornish Game Hen in the Great Investment Poultry Market.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, March 14, 2011

The Gold Price Must Hold On Above $1,420 and Better $1,436 Or It Will Turn Down

Gold Price Close Today : 1424.60
Change : 3.10 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.825
Change : 10.5 cents or -0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 39.77
Change : 0.202 or 0.5%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02515
Change : -0.000129 or -0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1753.50
Change : -27.50 or -1.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.50
Change : -15.00 or -2.0%

S&P 500 : 1,296.39
Change : -4.66 or -0.4%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.03
Change : $ (1.11) or -0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.419
Change : -0.054 or -0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 334.77
Change : -1.42 or -0.4%

Dow Industrial : 11,993.16
Change : -51.20 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 76.35
Change : -0.207 or -0.3%

The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE spake today with forked tongue. Gold rose $3.10 on Comex to $1,424.60, silver fell 10.5c to 3582.5c. All this equivocates like a Republican congressman in a Democratic district, or an NPR executive caught on video tape. Gold closed higher, yes, but not boldly, and not above the morale-building $1,425, despite a high at $1,430. Today's trading was merely sideways travel between $1,420 and $1,430. No doubt the earthquake is sending some folks running to gold.

Same folks are running out of silver, most likely. Think about it: when risk appetite is rising, people buy stocks and silver. When risk appetite is falling, people buy gold and .45s. One (namely, me) is deeply tempted to guess that flight-to-safety buying is holding gold up but not bleeding over to silver.

Truth to tell, silver's chart differeth not largely from gold's. Today was a sidewise, tightening band between 3627c and 3557.6c. This has not violated any uptrend, but feels weak.

Clearly, fear-filled gravity is operating on all markets. To remain trending upward, the SILVER PRICE must NOT close below 3550c and must exceed 3650c. The GOLD PRICE must hold on above $1,420 and better $1,436 or turn down.

I lean toward lower silver and gold, but am flinched for the possibility they might yet add another upleg.

Lawzy-mercy! As I used to hear my country aunts say in astonishment, markets are barking and yowling. 'Tain't nice.

Look at the US dollar index. Were we to take it in isolation and with a gullible want of suspicion, we would conclude it had lunged toward the upside, failed, and followed through downside. Today it fell through the 76.50 base from which it had last leapt up, down 20.7 basis points to 76.347.

Yet, dwelleth the dollar in a vacuum? Hardly. We know the Central Bank heads and financial "ministers" (think "Elmer Gantry") meet once a month for supper at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. Do you really think they talk about the rubber Chicken Divan, or do they put their heads together to manipulate their joint currency exchange rates? If you picked "talk about the rubber Chicken Divan," go to the back of the class. Your bulb has burned out its filament.

So when the world's 3rd largest economy suffers a terrible earthquake that threatens to annihilate both its currency and its stock market, do you reckon it occurred to anyone in Tokyo to call anybody in Washington and Frankfurt about jimmying exchange rates until the crisis blows over?

Thus it behooves us to parse the euro and yen charts together with the dollar. We see that the earthquake seems to have reversed the euro off its 20 DMA, and today it gapped up. Bad headache for the Nice Government Men around the world straining every nerve to keep the world safe for paper money.

Oddly enough, last Thursday the yen GAPPED UP out of a down trend to the top of its recent range, not that you or I would be buying yen in the face of that earthquake, but somebody was buying 'em like a meth-head buying Sudafed.

And how, pray, was the yen to rise but by sacrificing the dollar? What's a little exchange rate adjustment among crooked central bankers?

When you glance at the Tokyo Nikkei stock average, you understand why the NGM are manipulating 24 hours a day. In the last four days it has dropped from 10,600 to 9,620 today, crashing from its 20 DMA through the 50 and down through the 200 DMA.

Today the Dow just fell out of bed and smashed at its lowest clean through 11,900 to 11,897.31. But Lo and Behold! about 12:30 Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy, Elves, Trolls, Bigfoot and the Yeti all started buying stocks off 11,900, and the recovery reached 11,993.16 by closing time, down only 51.24. (S&P500 closed 1,296.39, down 4.66)

Dear Readers, this is the Big One, the down leg that will with vicious, brutal speed eat up months and months of gains.

Yet more pain aboundeth in diverse markets. If that ain't a head and shoulders in Platinum that broke down today, then it surely is a Kopf und Schulter. Break of $1,760 neckline projects a fall as low as $1,620. Palladium isn't much better, and appears to have rolled over. Close below 750 takes it to 650. Explain to me, if you please, how this can be positive for silver and gold?

On this day in 1900 the banks finally won when the US congress passed the hilariously mis-named "Gold Standard Act." It didn't set any standard, and couldn't make gold the standard anyway, since the dollar of silver (371.25 grains) had already been made the standard in 1792. However, it was a needful step in shoving both silver and gold out of the system altogether, and replacing them with created-out-of-thin-air bank credit.

Lest you think I am cynically reducing everything to mere economic events, I urge you to consider the human side of the Japanese earthquake. It now appears that 10,000 or more may have lost their lives to the tsunami. I don't know what else you might do, but you can certainly pray for the survivors and rescue workers.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.