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Monday, April 30, 2012

The Gold Price Needs to Burst Through the $1,682 Resistance to Confirm Next Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 1663.40
Change : (0.60) or -0.04%

Silver Price Close Today : 3095.90
Change : 38.80 cents or -1.24%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.729
Change : 0.646 or 1.22%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01861
Change : -0.000226 or -1.20%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1564.30
Change : 19.90 or 1.29%

Palladium Price Close Today : 681.70
Change : 23.45 or 3.56%

S&P 500 : 1,397.91
Change : -5.45 or -0.39%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.21
Change : $ (0.11) or -0.06%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.944
Change : -0.005 or -0.06%

Dow in SILVER oz : 426.81
Change : 4.81 or 1.14%

Dow Industrial : 13,213.63
Change : -14.68 or -0.11%

US Dollar Index : 78.78
Change : 0.075 or 0.10%

The GOLD PRICE showed the sort of action I deeply love. It opened flat, got pounded on the US open, straight down, then fast and steady rose right out of that hole to close nearly unchanged. Well, closed at $1,663.40, down sixty cents. Why do I like that action? $1,645 support, then returned to challenge $1,665 resistance. This maintains the uptrend and thumbs its nose at sellers.

On that gold chart with the falling wedge, gold did no more today than fall back for a final kiss good-bye to the upper boundary. If the GOLD PRICE can resist falling below $1,645, then it has broken out of that falling wedge and begun its next rally. Caution: there's likely to be a lot of very slowly rising mostly sideways action for a while. Remember that in the next week or so gold needs to burst through $1,682 resistance.

SILVER PRICE dropped 38.8 cents today to 3095.9c. Low came at 3057.8c, about where we saw most of the lows last week. After the usual early morning opening attack on silver, it recovered but didn't trade up as high as gold, only to the 3100c level.

This also speaks with forked tongue on that falling wedge chart. The low took silver down through the wedge's upper boundary, but silver closed above it. Silver is laboring to break out.

Last week we saw the lows (I believe) now the SILVER and GOLD PRICE are just breaking free of lower resistance levels before they start leaping.

Whatever hopes stock investors held that stocks would surge ahead today were dashed. Dow dropped 14.68 (0.11%), turned back again by the noxious miasma at 12,300. S&P backed off 0.39% (5.45) to 1,397.91. Only a Dow close above 12,325 can turn this picture positive.

US Dollar Index did nothing today to salvage its reputation. Oh, it rose 7.5 basis points -- mere dandelion fluff in the wind -- to 78.784, but after so clearly breaking down last week, such moves arouse only contempt. Dollar index could rally all the way to 79.25 for a final kiss back to the trendline it broke through, but unless it closes above 79.50, the dollar will drop further.

Euro dropped 0.11% today to $1.3239. Dollar is breaking down, euro is holding up, and only the yen seems to be profiting. Euro does, at least, barely remain above its 62 DMA (1.3206). As Friday's chart plainly foretold, the yen advanced again today. Gained 0.47% to 125.29c (Y79.81/US$1). Will move higher until the Mystic Knights of the Central Bank hit it again.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, April 27, 2012

The Gold Price Broke Out and is Moving Higher Closing up 1.3 Percent for the Week at $1,664

Gold Price Close Today : 1,664.00
Gold Price Close 20-Apr : 1,642.10
Change : 21.90 or 1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 3134.7
Silver Price Close 20-Apr : 3164.4
Change : -29.70 or -0.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.083
Gold Silver Ratio 20-Apr : 51.893
Change : 1.19 or 2.3%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01884
Silver Gold Ratio 20-Apr : 0.01927
Change : -0.00043 or -2.2%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 164.33
Dow in Gold Dollars 20-Apr : $ 164.02
Change : $ 0.31 or 0.2%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.950
Dow in Gold Ounces 20-Apr : 7.935
Change : 0.02 or 0.2%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 422.00
Dow in Silver Ounces 20-Apr : 411.75
Change : 10.25 or 2.5%

Dow Industrial : 13,228.31
Dow Industrial 20-Apr : 13,029.26
Change : 199.05 or 1.5%

S&P 500 : 1,403.36
S&P 500 20-Apr : 1,378.53
Change : 24.83 or 1.8%

US Dollar Index : 78.748
US Dollar Index 20-Apr : 79.144
Change : -0.396 or -0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,570.50
Platinum Price Close 20-Apr : 1,577.40
Change : -6.90 or -0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 681.60
Palladium Price Close 20-Apr : 675.00
Change : 6.60 or 1.0%

Overview of the silver and
GOLD PRICE this week says that they completed those falling wedges, made final bottoms for this move, and have begun moving higher.

GOLD PRICE today rose $4.40 to $1,664.00 while silver gained 14 cents to 3134.7c. Notice that this week (a) gold never closed below $1,630 and (b) silver spent only 3 days below 3100c.

Yesterday GOLD cracked the upper boundary of that falling wedge -- "broke out" -- and confirmed that today with a higher close. Yet once burned, twice shy, so I want to see gold clear $1,682 resistance to PROVE it has turned up, then keep marching right along and climb over that 200 DMA at $1,698.17. Looks good, but I'm holding my breath. Why? Because it still might drop back to the bottom boundary of that wedge, now about $1,600.

The SILVER PRICE was taken behind the bar and beaten so bad you'd have thought she couldn't stand up. Think again. 5 Day chart shows a spike bottom on Wednesday, followed by a surge through 3060c resistance, and a continuing advance clean to 3140c.

Today SILVER closed at 3134.7c, not far from the 3142c high.

On the longer term chart silver yesterday halted at the upper boundary of that falling wedge. Today she cleared it. In front of silver -- and needful to confirm a rally -- stands 3250c.

Appears that the SILVER and GOLD PRICE made their final lows this week for the correction that began off the March high. A lot of sideways frustration will likely follow, but trending upward. Big breakouts may not come till fall, but worst has passed.

Biggest winner for the week was the S&P500, up 1.8%, with gold not far behind at 1.3%. Not surprising, dollar index lost half a percent.

If this was any sort of sane world where everybody and his brother didn't have his thumb on the scale and his hand in the till, that US dollar index would have dropped like a big boy hit on the head with a large-size pipe wrench. Rather, it broke down from its two-month-a-building triangle and jes' sorta stumbled 40 basis points (0.51%) to 78.748, instead of dropping straight down like a low-flying mallard hit with #2 shot.

Where will this take the US dollar index? It has broken support stretching back to the late October low, so "lower" is the first answer. Second, there's an internal support line right about 78.50, beneath which lies air. Doesn't seem to be any particular reason -- that is, an announcement from the Bernancubus that he's going to debase the dollar faster -- for this slide, but maybe it's the NGM working together trying to float the euro.

Speaking of the euro, how'd you like to live in Spain, where admitted (Governments always lie) unemployment is 24.4% and half the folks under 25 have no jobs? Foreclosures rising, banks sinking, deficit booming. This saith not much for the euro's future. Today it rose 0.35% to 1.3253, which carries it only to the 32.8% correction level of its November - January drop. Yes, 'tis above its nested 20, 50, and 62 day moving averages, which points it higher, but if you put a .44 magnum to my head and asked me why, I reckon you'd just have to blow my brains out cause I could give you ne'er a reason.

Yen is on a tear, rose 1.04% today to 124.7c/Y100 (Y80.19/US$1). Climbing above that 124.5-ish level will send it flying, and I reckon y'all will see that.

Some of y'all may have marked that I NEVER have anything good to say about stocks, and I confess, that's no accident. Wake up! The US is mired to the wheel wells in depression, and the only thing government and the Fed can do is haul more barrels of water to thin the mud. Some few companies may prosper, but the vast majority of the US economy will keep on suffering because the Resplendent Ones Who Run Our Lives will not allow the economy to purge bad investments and bankrupt firms. mostly because their cronies own them.

More than that, stocks entered a primary downtrend in 2000, and will not significantly exceed that inflation-adjusted 11,722 high until the bear market ends, say 3 - 10 years hence.

At present the Dow Industrials have traced out a head and shoulders that may signal on a breather, a consolidation before moving higher, or a top. If the Dow can break through 13,300 -- IF -- then it might reach for 14,905 and the government and Wall Street shills will be singing sweet halleluiahs, but 'twill be the biggest bull trap of all time, for twill collapse thereafter to ignominious lows. Teeth will gnash, wailers will wail, hair will be pulled. If the Dow breaks say 12,100 sooner, then the gnashing, wailing, and hair-pulling will start sooner. No matter, either way the gnashing, etc. will come. Wait for it, it will come.

Today the Dow rose, with great labor, to 13,228.31, up 23.69 (0.18%) while the S&P500 climbed over 1,400 to 1,403.36 (up 3.38 or 0.24%).

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, April 26, 2012

The Gold Price Closed up $18.20 at $1,659.60 Silver up too with an 85 cent Gain

Gold Price Close Today : 1659.60
Change : 18.20 or 1.11%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.207
Change : 0.851 cents or 2.80%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.180
Change : -0.891 or -1.65%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01880
Change : 0.000310 or 1.68%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1567.10
Change : 22.70 or 1.47%

Palladium Price Close Today : 671.90
Change : 13.65 or 2.07%

S&P 500 : 1,399.98
Change : 9.29 or 0.67%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.48
Change : $ (0.37) or -0.23%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.957
Change : -0.018 or -0.23%

Dow in SILVER oz : 423.13
Change : -8.11 or -1.88%

Dow Industrial : 13,204.62
Change : 113.90 or 0.87%

US Dollar Index : 78.93
Change : 0.070 or 0.09%

Yesterday I said that the
GOLD PRICE drop to a new low for a move and sharp recovery showed strength. Shut my mouth if it didn't gain $18.20 today to dazzle the Comex with a $1,659.60 close, above $1,640 and $1,650 resistance. High touched $1,660.55, low never fell below $1,645.72.

Here's the good news and the bad news. Bad is that gold is forming a rising wedge, and could still drop down to the bottom boundary thereof, right now about $1,590. Good news is that the GOLD PRICE cracked that upper boundary today, but hold on! Won't confirm an upside breakout and rally until it closes ABOVE $1,683, resistance AND the 150 day moving average.

My darling SILVER leapt 85.1 cents today to clear 3100c and close Comex grinning at 3120.7c like a jackass eating sawbriars. That was close to the 3127c high, and a LONG ways from the 3064.4c low. Today's close landed silver slap on the upper boundary of the falling wedge. Bear in mind that silver must make good this escape by closing higher tomorrow, and might yet touch the other side of that falling wedge, now about 3000c.

It MAY BE that the SILVER PRICE and the GOLD PRICE today have opened the door to that rally we've awaited so long. Both must confirm with respectably higher closes tomorrow.

Sideways markets are tough to parse. When they seem just about to break out, they fall back. Often to the bottom of a long, narrowing triangle. I think that's what's taking place with stocks.

They rose today. That's why y'all are getting this lecture. Dow was up 113.9 (0.87%) to 13,204.62 and the S&P500 rose 9.29 (0.67%) to 1,399.98, one mouse burp away from 1,400. What meaneth this uproar?

Still appears to me stocks are painting a head and shoulders top, right now finishing the right and final shoulder. It would take a close above 13,300 to change my mind. This "rally" strikes me as bait for suckers.

Curioser still is the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$). This has formed a diamond since mid-March, which usually marks a top. For the past two weeks the DiG$ has skidded along atop its 20 DMA (now G$163.10 or 7.890 oz.) but never climbing higher than G$164.90 (7.977 oz).

Stability like that makes little sense. I mean, it won't stay there much longer. To escape the diamond upside the DiG$ must close above G$165.37 (8.000 oz) then quickly rise over G$168.12 (8.133 oz), the last high. More likely is that the DiG$ will fall out of the triangle gravity-ward when it bereaks G$160 (7.740 oz).

Lo! How are the mighty fallen! Tell it not in Gath, that the US dollar index today fell below 78 and now tradeth at 78.931. True, that's lower by only 7 basis points (a measly 0.09%), but it is painfully symbolic for the dollar. In aftermarket trading it's trying to rise, so maybe today marked the dollar's low. It better have, else it falls out of a long triangle and loses 300 basis points. Must hold 79.

The Euro went nowhere, closing today at $1.3221 against yesterday's $1.3225. Too little to count, call it unchanged. Yen gapped up -- sigh, again -- today to 123.51c, 0.37% (Y80.97/US$1). Never mind the theatrics, yen must climb above 124.54 even to raise a suspicion it is changing its downward trend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Gold Price Must Stay Above $1,623 Has it Already Bottomed?

Gold Price Close Today : 1641.40
Change : (1.60) or -0.10%

Silver Price Close Today : 3035.6
Change : 39.0 cents or -1.27%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.072
Change : 0.634 or 1.19%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01849
Change : -0.000219 or -1.17%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1544.40
Change : 1.50 or 0.10%

Palladium Price Close Today : 658.25
Change : -6.75 or -1.02%

S&P 500 : 1,390.69
Change : 18.72 or 1.36%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.86
Change : $ 1.30 or 0.79%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.975
Change : 0.063 or 0.79%

Dow in SILVER oz : 431.24
Change : 8.37 or 1.98%

Dow Industrial : 13,090.72
Change : 89.16 or 0.69%

US Dollar Index : 79.03
Change : -0.168 or -0.21%

Today the
GOLD PRICE made a low ($1,623.40) equal to Monday's low. Market was flat above $1,635, then suddenly woke up at 12:30 (on the dot) to fall to $1,623. About 1:00 p.m., it shot up higher than the shelf it had fallen off of, to $1,646.60, then closed down $1.60 on the day at $1,641.40.

Now that's not a key reversal, but it is strong action. The GOLD PRICE fell to its previous low and refused to break -- no more sellers waiting there to be spooked out of gold. Worse yet for the gold short universe (which encompasses pretty much every government and central bank on the globe), crowds of buyers were waiting there, enough to drive the price above $1,640.

Okay, this isn't by any means a runaway bull rally, but it does suggest a bottom and a market running out of sellers.

Here's a little more. With a double bottom, GOLD has now established support at $1,623, so we can say "as long as gold stays above $1,623, 'twill be out of danger of great declines." However, y'all ought also bear in mind that the falling wedge on gold's chart has a lower boundary that could stand a drop to $1,575 without violation.

Mirroring gold's performance, the SILVER PRICE, too, dropped mid-day, but to a lower low at 2998.7 cents. Just as quickly it jumped up out of that hold, and closed Comex only 39c lower at 3035.6c.

On a longer term chart, the one with that falling wedge, this took silver only to the bottom of that falling wedge, whence it bounced back. This is splendid behavior, but silver must keep it up by not falling through 3000c. Today, with its bad/good/indifferent news announcement from the FOMC that didn't break silver, constitutes positive news. Now SILVER needs a higher close above 3100c to prove that.

Well, the Great Ones of The Frittering Open Market Committee met, and their announcement leads one to suspect they were scared of doing anything to disrupt markets. We're going to keep on doing what we have been doing, they said.

How did the markets take that? Me, I want to know not what people say, but what the canny ones do with their money. No cannier exist than bond investors, and the yield on 10 year and 30 year bonds rose a little. That represents a discount on the bonds for more expected inflation, which would explain why stocks also rose, because markets insanely (or should I say "Keynesianly") think more inflation will help the economy, and idea on a par with the notion that putting a knife under a laboring woman's bed will cut the pain.

The mighty US Dollar Index fell a little, 16.8 basis points (0.22%) to 79.034. In any other market this would be fatal, but you have to allow a lot of "slop" for currencies, manipulated as they are. Today's lower close marks a new low for the dollar for this move, and brings it much closer to The Line That Must Not Be Crossed, namely, 79 (bottom of the long even-sided triangle). Dollar could stumble badly here.

After a drop lower today, the Yen recovered to close higher by a gnat's eyebrow -- 122.98c against yesterday's 122.96c. Remains above the 50 DMA and 20 DMA, so momentum is positive but until it can climb above the 200 DMA (127.74) yen remains in a downtrend. Euro rose to US$1.3225, up 0.23% but still scruffing along without any resolution. Meanwhile, not only Spain but not Holland also appears ready to unravel. Doesn't really make the euro attractive.

Stocks rose today, proving that P.T. Barnum was right about the frequency of certain births. Dow rose 89.16 (0.69%) to 13,090.72 and S&P500 did better rising 18.72 (1.36%) to 1,390.69.

Dow is trapped below 13,100 resistance, and above that more resistance at 13,300. This unrolleth against a backdrop of a head and shoulders top finishing out a right and last shoulder. Buying a market that looks like that is like drawing to an A-K-J-10 inside straight flush in 5 card draw.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, April 24, 2012

The Gold Price Rose $11.10 to Close $1,643 Needs to Rise to $1,655 Awaiting FOMC Meeting Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1643.00
Change : 11.10 or 0.68%

Silver Price Close Today : 3074.60
Change : 21.5 cents or 0.70%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.438
Change : -0.013 or -0.02%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01871
Change : 0.000004 or 0.02%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1542.90
Change : -13.40 or -0.86%

Palladium Price Close Today : 665.00
Change : -5.75 or -0.86%

S&P 500 : 1,371.97
Change : 5.03 or 0.37%

Dow In GOLD$ : $163.58
Change : $ (0.15) or -0.09%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.913
Change : -0.007 or -0.09%

Dow in SILVER oz : 422.87
Change : -0.54 or -0.13%

Dow Industrial : 13,001.56
Change : 74.39 or 0.58%

US Dollar Index : 79.37
Change : 0.180 or 0.23%

The
GOLD PRICE rose $11.10 today to $1,643 and the SILVER PRICE rose 21.5 cents to 3074.6 cents. Truth is, this doesn't tell us very much. Yes, both the silver and GOLD PRICE left behind little spike bottoms yesterday, but without a rise above 3140c in silver or $1,655 in gold, nothing is resolved. And hanging over the market like a big question mark is the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

Only my opinion, but yesterday may have taken the silver and
GOLD PRICE down as low as they will go. Too early to tell yet, but likely.

If it wasn't for bad economic news, there wouldn't be any news at all. Case-Shiller home price index today recorded housing prices declined 3.5% from a year earlier. Home prices haven't been this low since November 2002. But I reckon this is still the best of all possible economies.

More confusion is added because the Great Ones of the Federal Open Market Committee meet tomorrow, and none of the tea-leaf readers know exactly which they will jump. If they sound tough on inflation (no QE for you, Bad America!) then the dollar will rise and stocks and metals will suffer. If they sound easy on inflation (Buck up, America -- we have more monetary meth for you!) then the dollar will suffer and stocks and metals should rise.

So ridiculous as it is, markets await the pronouncements of 17 people who don't know any more than the rest of us, but have their hands on the monetary spigot forbidden to the rest of us. That means the dollar is key to where markets move next. The dollar since November 2011 has been trading into a long even- sided triangle. It sitteth square upon the bottom boundary thereof, and should it break that limit, should fall clean to the 200 day moving average (77.88).

However, the dollar remains - by the hair on its green paper chin -- in an uptrend. That means the market is biased in favor of an upward outcome. Truth to tell, I watch these events and can seldom parse how the public and the Wise Ones Commenting will take the Fed's moves. I'd have as much luck trying to parse a Roman haruspex reading the guts of sacrificed sheep. None of it makes a lick of sense.

That's why I fall back on the fundamental set up of government and fed, where the institutional imperative is "Inflate or die!" Never mind what soothing words they drool, they most assuredly will inflate, sooner or later.

Back to currencies. Yen today dropped 0.2% to 122.96c/Y100 (Y81.33/US$1). It stands above its 50 DMA and 20 DMA, but with a gappy, jumpy pattern that makes little sense. Resembles recent pointless trading in the euro. Euro rose 0.32% today to $1.3197. This is a likely time for the Nice Government Men to manipulate the bejabbers out of the market, given the skittishness in Europe and woes in Japan.

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed over 13,000 today -- just barely, at 13,001.56, up 74.39 or 0.58%. S&P500 rose 5.03 (0.37%) to 1,371.97.

Dow's five day pattern is directionless to weak, up and down but blocked by 13,100 the way Kryptonite blocks Superman. S&P500 looks about the same, but weaker still. Stocks are ready to fall off a cliff, unless some central bank deus ex machina saves them.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, April 23, 2012

The Gold Price Dropped $10.20 to Close Comex at $1,631.90 Bull Market is Hardly One-Third Complete

Gold Price Close Today : 1631.90
Change : (10.20) or -0.62%

Silver Price Close Today : 3052.50
Change : 111.90 cents or -3.54%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.461
Change : 1.568 or 3.02%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01871
Change : -0.000565 or -2.93%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1556.30
Change : -21.10 or -1.34%

Palladium Price Close Today : 670.75
Change : -4.25 or -0.63%

S&P 500 : 1,366.94
Change : -11.59 or -0.84%

Dow In GOLD$ : $163.75
Change : $ (0.25) or -0.15%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.922
Change : -0.012 or -0.15%

Dow in SILVER oz : 423.49
Change : 11.75 or 2.85%

Dow Industrial : 12,927.17
Change : -102.09 or -0.78%

US Dollar Index : 79.37
Change : 0.180 or 0.23%

The
GOLD PRICE today dropped $10.20 and closed Comex at $1,631.90. Now it's true that it traded as low as $1,623.59, below my $1,630 limit, but it didn't CLOSE there, don't you know. SILVER PRICE finally broke through 3100c and traded as low as 3047c. Lost 111.9c on Comex and ended at 3052.5c, but here in the aftermarket nearly four hours later it's trading around and above 3090c.

Since March I've been watching a bullish falling wedge take shape on the gold chart, so contrary to popular expectations, today neither surprised me nor cast me down. The GOLD PRICE could fall to $1,580 without violating that wedge's lower boundary. Recall, too that a falling wedge points to a soon-future UP move.

It grieves me to see some folks tiring out, exhausted by this long correction. Please hear me out: I have been in this frustrating place before. In two of the last corrections the GOLD PRICE took 71 weeks and 77 weeks to reach the level where the correction began. But in that last case, that was $1,003.80 and the high for that move followed at $1,888.70 last August. If you don't pay any mind to anything else I say, write this down in that little book you carry in your shirt pocket: In price terms this bull market is hardly one-third complete.

But if you don't want to listen, you're welcome to stuff them green paper dollars in your mattress, and maybe a bunch of stock certificates, too. They make swell wall paper.

My baby SILVER hath also traced out a falling wedge. Here the bottom boundary stands about 2975c today, but if I draw that line slightly differently, it stands about where silver hit its low today (Arbitrary? Well, sometimes.)

Oh, silver could spend more time down here laboring in the basement, but I don't much expect it to break below 3000c, maybe to 2975c. Of course, won't many of y'all be buying while it's down here. Y'all would rather wait and buy it at 3600c, I reckon, but that's human nature.

If I am reading silver and gold wrong, I might be spectacularly wrong. Bottom might yet drop out, especially if the Great Ones Who Care For Us can't find a way to dupe us about the European crisis. But from a technical standpoint and from the longevity of the correction, and the charts, I don't believe y'all will see gigantically lower silver and gold.

Man, nothing but good news out of Europe today, and they really have that crisis under control, like a hound with hydrophobia is learning to control his drooling. French president Sarcophagus became the first president since 1958 not to win re-election on the first ballot, and Sarcophagus is the other half of the Franco-Teutonic Dynamic Duo, with German Chancellor Ferkel. No Sarcophagus, no Duo, no leadership. Next budget talks collapsed in the Netherlands -- the next Greece?! And basking in all this good news, Euro stock markets tumbled to 3 month lows. Never mind that foam on his lips, Europe will be all right.

I reckon the Resplendent Ones at the IMF meeting did not, after all, solve all the world's financial problem. What a surprise.

Y'all would guess on a day that hit stocks and metals such a blow, not to mention all the troubles in Europe, that the US Dollar Index would have soared. Y'all would guess wrong, cause the dollar index rose a meager 18 basis points (0.23%) to 79.374, merely enough to save itself from breaking down.

Just to give y'all a flavor of how hard it must be to manipulate markets and make 'em stick, the euro today dropped 0.5% to $1.3154. Remember that on Friday it had jumped up through its downtrend line and tangled its feet in the jumble of moving averages up above. I mused then that it looked right suspicious, like a drunk with a half-pint sized bulge in his back pocket, but it might not have been Nice Government Men. It might have been merely shorts pulling out of the market before the Resplendent met. Either way, the Euro didn't stick, and I expect that gigantic euro short out there has today measurably swollen.

On the globe's other side the yen rose 0.47% to 123.24c (Y81.14/US$1). That carries it -- with a gap -- above the 50 DMA yet again, which argues that the yen did NOT post an island reversal last week, but I'd still like to see higher prices to second that.

Stocks had a teeth-gnashing day. They opened underwater and stayed there all day swimming like somebody from New Jersey wearing those famous concrete overshoes. Wasn't that they jiggled up and down, they just sank on the open and stayed there. Dow lost 102.09 (0.78%) to end at 12,927.17. The S&P 500 lost 11.59 (0.84%) to 1,366.94.

Been warning y'all about the head and shoulders top in the Dow and S&P500. S&P500 today closed nearly square on the neckline (about 1,360). Dow's right shoulder, on the other hand, stands about 200 points above its 12,700 neckline. No matter, when stocks lurch through that neckline, they'll drop off a cliff, shave 600 points off the Dow in a few days.

But Great Grasping Greenspans and Bouncing Bernankes! What do I know? I'm no more'n a natural born fool from Tennessee, just a-watchin' my betters perform.

Mercy! My wife just walked into the room with a bag of dried dates, apricots, and figs, which I view the same way a meth-head views meth. I have to bring this to a close.

Spain has criminalized cash business transactions over 2,500 euros (US$3,250), supposedly to catch tax cheats in its new austerity program. Hogwash! Remember what I told y'all the other day about how little paper money cash exists in this country? The cashless society isn't about convenience, it about CONTROL. Go read www.thedailybell.com/3814/Spain-Bans-Cash.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, April 20, 2012

Higher Gold Price Coming Soon a Break Above $1,682 Will Prove it Time to Stop Waiting and Start Buying

Gold Price Close Today : 1,642.10
Gold Price Close 13-Apr : 1,659.10
Change : -17.00 or -1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3164.4
Silver Price Close 13-Apr : 3138
Change : 26.40 or 0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.893
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Apr : 52.871
Change : -0.98 or -1.9%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01927
Silver Gold Ratio 13-Apr : 0.01891
Change : 0.00036 or 1.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 164.02
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Apr : $ 160.10
Change : $ 3.92 or 2.4%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.935
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Apr : 7.745
Change : 0.19 or 2.4%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 411.75
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Apr : 409.48
Change : 2.26 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial : 13,029.26
Dow Industrial 13-Apr : 12,849.59
Change : 179.67 or 1.4%

S&P 500 : 1,378.53
S&P 500 13-Apr : 1,370.26
Change : 8.27 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 79.144
US Dollar Index 13-Apr : 79.888
Change : -0.744 or -0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,577.40
Platinum Price Close 13-Apr : 1,581.60
Change : -4.20 or -0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 675.00
Palladium Price Close 13-Apr : 643.20
Change : 31.80 or 4.9%

The
GOLD PRICE ranged today a meager $7.74, practically dead and not twitching. Rose $1.50 to $1,642.10, but fell $17 (1%) for the week.

Aha! What's that I see on a one year chart? Could that be a bullish falling wedge that began in March and neareth its completion? Why, yes, indeed it could be, and is. It also argues that gold will not again visit $1,600.

The sad time of this long GOLD PRICE correction since the high last August draweth to a close. It may yet be weeks away, but higher gold is coming soon. A break through $1,682 will prove it, a break below $1,600 gainsays it, but only for the nonce.

SILVER PRICE contended against gold today, dropping 12.7c (Would you even pick up a sum that big, a dime and three pennies?) to close at 3164.4c. Range was passing narrow at 34c (high 3190, low 3156.1). Clearly, everybody has run for cover until the Resplendent have returned to their dens.

The SILVER PRICE, too, has formed a falling wedge since the March high, a formation that usually resolves in a rally. Silver needs to clear 3200c, then 3250c to prove a rally. Could drop as low as 3000c without violating the falling wedge. Must hold 3100c or visit that 3000c.

Time is growing full, time to stop waiting and start buying silver and gold.

My, O, my, I look at markets today and think with Voltaire's Candide, "This is the best of all possible worlds." Until it isn't.

I suspect that markets have hushed their mouths, covered their heads, and hunkered down because the Resplendent Ones of the Very Important IMF are meeting in Washington this weekend, and one never knows what the Resplendent might do to upset everyone's applecarts.

Thus markets moved little this week: gold down a twinch, silver up the same, stocks better a bit, and the dollar index make a new low today while the Euro perked up.

One (a suspicious one) suspects that news might have leaked about the Resplendent's plans because the dollar hit a new low today while the euro gained 0.64% to $1.3220, gapping up for a new high. On the other hand, another suspicious one might deduce the Resplendent manipulated the dollar lower and the euro higher to sell something or other at the VI IMF meeting. One with truly important concerns, like a sock drawer that needs re-arranging, would not care either way, since both the Resplendent and all their fiat currencies are sliding down the Way of the Dodo even as we speak.

Technically today's dollar index slide took the scrofulous US currency down to a new low for the move AND below its 20 day moving average, leaving the dollar looking event scabbier than usual.

The yen closed up 0.13% (nothing) to 122.66c (Y81.53/US$1), improving nothing, changing nothing.

I reckon someone in the Nice Government Men's cave decided that the Dow shouldn't finish a week below 13,000, so the Dow rose today 65.16 points to 13,029.26. S&P500 rose 8.22 to 1,376.92

Delude not yourself, neither hug to your breast the phantom of groundless hope. Dow is tracing out a head and shoulders reversal pattern and is now putting finishing touches on the right and final shoulder. Shouldn't rise again above 13,150, and when it crosses that neckline at 12,700, 'twill nose dive 600 points before you can say, "Bernancubus, call the NGM!"

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, April 19, 2012

Gold Price Posted a New Low and Higher High the First Half of a Key Reversal Must Close Higher Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1640.60
Change : 1.80 or 0.11%

Silver Price Close Today : 3177.10
Change : 29.30 cents or 0.93%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.638
Change : -0.423 or -0.81%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01937
Change : 0.000158 or 0.82%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1575.80
Change : -0.80 or -0.05%

Palladium Price Close Today : 662.25
Change : 4.85 or 0.74%

S&P 500 : 1,376.92
Change : -8.22 or -0.59%

Dow In GOLD$ : $163.35
Change : $ (1.03) or -0.63%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.902
Change : -0.050 or -0.63%

Dow in SILVER oz : 408.05
Change : -5.98 or -1.44%

Dow Industrial : 12,964.10
Change : -68.65 or -0.53%

US Dollar Index : 79.59
Change : 0.055 or 0.07%

Once again, the
GOLD PRICE close looks like a little mouse-burp nothing, but the closer you look the better it looks -- even though it posted a new low today.

Overnight the GOLD PRICE was rocking along between $1,638 and $1,646. Then the selling started about an hour before New York opened. Rapier flashing in the air, gold was driven back to $1,631.57, pushed away its adversaries, backed to the wall again, then advanced like one of Samson's foxes, straight up to $1,652.62. Too bad, couldn't hold on quite that high and was driven back again by closing time to $1,640.60, up only $1.80. 'Tain't much, but it is a new low followed by a higher close, the first half of a key reversal. To clinch that, GOLD must close higher again tomorrow. I smell mackerel in this action; somebody is bullying gold.

The SILVER PRICE pushed for 3200c today, but fell back at 3199c. One day chart resembles gold's, with an attack early in the morning that drove silver to 3136.7 (not a new low), and from which silver by 10:00 a.m. had risen to its day's high. Settled up 29.3c on Comex at 3177.1c.

That 3199c, by the way, is silver's 20 DMA, trip wire of a rally, and it marks the upper boundary of that falling wedge I alluded to yesterday.

It's not much of an uptrend, but the SILVER 5 day chart does show a series of higher highs and higher lows. Silver must stay above that 3136.7c level or risk sliding much further.

I've been staring at charts today, and am once again impressed that the overwhelming likelihood is that bottoms for silver and gold lie behind us, in December. Downside risk in gold from here isn't more than 6%, I reckon, and that would take a $100 drop. Not likely.

Another witness shouting that silver and gold have turned is the nationwide deadness in the physical silver and gold market. Dealers I talk to report having to take No-Doz during the day just to stay awake. Sure sign a bottom has passed.

Maybe the Great and Mighty NGM are engineering things to quietness here in the run-up to the IMF meeting this weekend. IMF chieftess, Christine Lagarde, is honking her horn like Clarabelle trying to get more suckers -- whoops, make that "nations -- to contribute to the IMF's bail out fund, which it almost certainly will need for Spain, Italy, and maybe even France.

If y'all have ever dealt with an alcoholic or drug addict, you know that they are unable to change, although as long as they keep on doing the same thing, the same results will come forth. In precisely the same fashion, but with significantly greater moral blame, comes the entire financial and monetary apparat of the world. We have to keep on watching them doing the same stupid thing -- inflating and bailing out -- which didn't work in the first place, and won't work in the last place. Worst of all, like Christine Lagarde, they pose as public benefactors when in fact they are no more that wretched vampires, sucking the lifeblood out of honest productive people.

Whoops. Sorry. Let us leave the truth behind and move on to markets and such-like theater.

Currency markets remained flat, except for the yen, which has a touch of nausea. Dollar index is now trading at 79.575, down an invisible 1.7 basis points. Euro rose 0.11% to $1.3136, nothing big or life-changing. Yen dropped 0.34%, still below its 50 dma (123.14c) and aiming at the 20 DMA beneath (122.14c). Now trading at 122.62c (Y81.55/US$1). If it crosses that 20 DMA we can conclude the yen's spicy rally was no more than a reaction in an on-going downtrend.

Woe is Wall Street! Dow today fell through that morale-damaging 13,000 line, down 68.65 (0.53%) to 12,964.10, right back to where it stood on Monday. S&P500 lost 0.59% (8.22) to 1,376.92.

Today I will venture yet another unpopular observation. Dow has formed a head and shoulders topping formation with a neckline at 12,700 and a nearly completed right shoulder and formation. Mark also that the MACD looks iffy and the RSI offers little encouragement.

Steve Saville pointed out in his Speculative Investor today (www.speculative-investor.com) that of all the stock indices in the wide world, only the Dow and S&P500 have made higher highs than 2010 and 2011, and some are below 2008 levels (Spain, e.g.). One is tempted to speculate that the Nice Government Men in the US -- the Plunge Protection Team -- and the Fed want to keep those Potemkin indices up to keep all the investing ovines in the fold. Did y'all ever see Jim Carrey in the movie, The Truman Show?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, April 18, 2012

The Gold Price Gave Back $11.50 to Close at $1,638.80 Watch $1,638.24 Tomorrow as it Shouldn't Cross that Line

Gold Price Close Today : 1638.80
Change : (11.50) or -0.70%

Silver Price Close Today : 3147.80
Change : 18.70 cents or -0.59%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.062
Change : -0.056 or -0.11%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01921
Change : 0.000021 or 0.11%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1576.60
Change : -5.20 or -0.33%

Palladium Price Close Today : 657.40
Change : -5.60 or -0.84%

S&P 500 : 1,385.14
Change : -5.64 or -0.41%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.40
Change : $ 0.13 or 0.08%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.953
Change : 0.006 or 0.08%

Dow in SILVER oz : 414.03
Change : -0.17 or -0.04%

Dow Industrial : 13,032.75
Change : -82.79 or -0.63%

US Dollar Index : 79.59
Change : 0.055 or 0.07%

Today
GOLD PRICE gave back $11.50 to shutter Comex at $1,638.80. GOLD PRICE defended its $1,638.24 low thrice, then pulled up and away a bit. Watch that $1,638.24 tomorrow, because gold shouldn't cross that line if it does intend to rise soon.

I try not to allow myself to see things on charts that aren't there, and force myself to see what is there. So I will report that the 5 day gold chart shows a flattish (that makes one suspect it) upside down head and shoulders in gold. Think of the neckline about $1,656, with a left shoulder on Monday, a head in that sudden down-spike on Tuesday, and a right shoulder today. If it is an upside down Hands, it targets another sprint for $1,675.

Mercy, this narrowing trading range is wearing me out. Here soon silver and gold will break through in a stout move, but can't tell yet which way that will be. And of course, there's always Europe with its looming financial crisis that might burst forth any time, changing everything -- but which way, for which metal? In 2008, investors dumped everything, stocks, gold, silver, in favor of dollars, but back in the summer they were dumping euros and dollars for gold. Which way will they jump this time?

Heavens above, I don't think like they do. If I was running the world, most of the people running it now would be in jail, a lot of those in jail would be turned loose, everybody would be good looking, and nobody would sweat much. Like I say, I just don't think like the public.

The SILVER PRICE had another tight-lipped day, giving us no clue what's on its mind. It sank 18.7c to 3147.8c Oh, it's left a little scoopy pattern on the 5 day chart since the weekend, but that doesn't tell you anything. It must hold 3120c or 'twill sink like your algebra average after the teacher caught you reading formulas off your palm during a test. Low today came at 3134c, and I really wouldn't like silver even to draw nigh that number tomorrow.

One thing I did notice on the longer term silver chart that causes the heart to leap: I believe silver has traced out a bullish falling wedge pattern. If so, it might possible fall to the bottom boundary, now about 3000c, then blast right back up. Wedges, remember, point the OPPOSITE direction to their breakout, so falling wedges break out upwards.

It's springtime in Tennessee, and I'm fretting to be outside. That doesn't make watching a taxing, vexing sideways market any easier. Still, y'all know that eventually the silver and GOLD PRICE will resolve this the only way they can in a bull market: by rallying much, much higher.

On the Internet today I read, "The Eurozone could break up and trigger a 'full-blown panic in financial markets and depositor flight' and a global economic slump to rival the Great Depression, the IMF warned yesterday."

Setting aside for the nonce the IMF's need to toot the crisis horn in order to boost its own powers, let us calmly digest this statement. The IMF opines that the still-unaddressed European sovereign debt (and related bank insolvency) crisis could trigger a financial market panic like 2008's in the US "and depositor flight." I reckon that means depositors would try to withdraw their money from banks, an old-fashioned bank run.

Well, lots of luck, Depositors, cause there ain't no money in them banks. Naw, I don't mean that they are loaded to the gills with bad paper, although that's true, too, but literally, there ain't no money there, not even paper money. Banks keep only a tiny bit of cash on hand. Back in 1998 there was only $1,177.54 per head circulating in the whole US.

Latest (3/12, from St. Louis Fed) reading for Federal Reserve Currency issued is $1,033.1 billions. 75% or more of that circulates overseas, so for 313,387,357 Americans, that leaves in circulation $824.14 per red-white-and-blue pate.

And I'll bet sitting here not 10% of y'all have as much as $1,000 in cash (green paper money) on you now or at home, although most of you spend more than $3,000 a month just to stay dry and fed. And to make sure y'all don't wise up and try to get your hands on some pictures of dead presidents, the US government treats dealing in cash or even holding it above certain amounts as a crime.

As I said, Depositors, in the event of a bank run, y'all stand the same change of getting cash that a three-legged June bug stands at a Rhode Island Red chicken convention on a hungry day.

All that constitutes yet another sound reason to get your hands on always reliable US 90% silver coin and gold coin.

I warn y'all, the sun is shining, the wild flox and wild azaleas and tulip poplars are blooming, and my mind is not on staying in this office. But here goes.

Dollar index today moved a bare 5.5 points to 79.585, leaving the dollar's intent still unclear, although with a bias to the upside that can only be contradicted by a close below 79.2. Euro ended down 0.05% at $1,3119, still trending down. Yen stumbled and tumbled today, closing down 0.49% to 123.07c (y81.25/US$1). Chart shows that's below the 50 dma (123.38) but it also gapped down, leaving behind what might be an "island reversal." That occurs when a market rallies, gaps up, trades sideways, then gaps down again, leaving a little island behind. It's a right deadly and reliable reversal pattern.

STOCKS showed what they were made of today, falling back to support just above 13,000. Dow closed down 82.79 (0.63%) at 13,032.75; S&P500 lost 5.64 (0.41%) to 1,385.14. For the Dow, that's below the 20 day moving average (13,057) which means the Dow isn't getting any traction here for higher prices.

But then, I can say that because I don't work for the yankee government, the Fed, or Wall Street.

And the legitimate government agents never did get their assault rifles.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Gold Price was Driven Down to $1,634.88 but Snapped Back to the Day's High Holding Above $1,650 in After Market

Gold Price Close Today : 1650.30
Change : 1.60 or 0.10%

Silver Price Close Today : 3166.50
Change : 30.1 cents or 0.96%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.117
Change : -0.449 or -0.85%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01919
Change : 0.000164 or 0.86%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1581.80
Change : 8.60 or 0.55%

Palladium Price Close Today : 663.00
Change : 10.95 or 1.68%

S&P 500 : 1,390.78
Change : 21.21 or 1.55%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.29
Change : $ 2.29 or 1.41%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.947
Change : 0.111 or 1.41%

Dow in SILVER oz : 414.20
Change : 2.21 or 0.54%

Dow Industrial : 13,115.54
Change : 194.13 or 1.50%

US Dollar Index : 79.56
Change : 0.020 or 0.03%

Today the
GOLD PRICE made a new low for the move, $1,634.88. In overnight trading gold climbed to $1,556.40, then about 9:30 New York time somebody big tried to slap the fool out of gold. Drove it down to $1,634.88 by 10:00, but didn't reckon with gold's ability to snap back. As quickly as it had fallen or even more quickly, gold bounded back to the day's high, then settled down to scoot along $1,650 the rest of the day. Comex closed up $1.60 at $1,650.30, but that didn't tell much of a story. Aftermarket is holding on above $1,650.

Caption here is, "Out of weakness, strength." Unless the GOLD PRICE closes below today's low, it is out of danger.

SILVER PRICE also suffered an early morning attack, but its five day chart doesn't quite match gold's. Rather, silver made a low early Monday at 3116c, then climbed, and edged off the balance of the day. Started today around 3130c in Europe and reached 3180c before New York opened. Next the Attacker struck, driving silver down to 3133.2, and it recovered just as quickly as gold. Comex closed up 30.1c to 3166.5c. This leaves a distinctly bottomy look behind.

To maintain that bottom, SILVER needs to remain above 3130c tomorrow. Crucial mark to defend remains 3100c.

Nothing makes me as edgy as watching flat markets, knowing that pressure is building up somewhere that won't blow off until its ready. Some blew today, some stayed flat.

Stocks jumped straight up. Yesterday I said the Dow needed to pierce 13,000 or 'would crumple, and it must have heard me. Rose 194.13 (1.5%) to close at 13,115.54. S&P 500 kept pace today, rising 21.21 (1.55%) to 1,390.78.

Y'all will think this is merely my bias speaking, but regardless, look for a very short, sharp rise in stocks, maybe to the last high at 13,297, maybe over 1,400 for the S&P500. Following this speedy rise, stocks will step into a laundry chute that leads to Dow 12,500 or lower.

Flat currency markets bother me. NGM are up to something, maybe for the International Monetary Fund meeting this weekend. Scabby dollar went no place today, up 2 basis points to 79.563. Sorry euro closed $1.3129 versus yesterday's 1.3136. These are not differences big enough to see, much less change anything. Scruffy yen backed off 0.62% to 123.62c (Y80.89/US$1), but remains above its 50 day moving average, so momentum should carry it higher. However, that 124 level has very strong magnetism.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, April 16, 2012

The Gold Price Fell $10.40 to $1,648.70 Trading Over $1,650 in the After Market

Gold Price Close Today : 1648.70
Change : (10.40) or -0.63%

Silver Price Close Today : 3136.40
Change : 1.6 cents or -0.05%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.567
Change : -0.305 or -0.58%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01902
Change : 0.000110 or 0.58%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1573.20
Change : -8.40 or -0.53%

Palladium Price Close Today : 652.05
Change : 8.85 or 1.38%

S&P 500 : 1,369.57
Change : -0.69 or -0.05%

Dow In GOLD$ : $162.01
Change : $ 1.93 or 1.20%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.837
Change : 0.093 or 1.20%

Dow in SILVER oz : 411.98
Change : 2.50 or 0.61%

Dow Industrial : 12,921.41
Change : 71.82 or 0.56%

US Dollar Index : 79.52
Change : -0.366 or -0.46%

The
GOLD PRICE dropped $10.40 to $1,648.70, still holding on comfortably above my $1,630 drop-dead line. Silver lost only 1.6c, closing 3136.4, well above the 3100c downside trigger. (Low was 3116c)

I glanced at
GOLD in yen and in euro, and was gratified to see that in both currencies it is bouncing along its 200 day moving average. Why is that welcome news? Well, in bull markets the 200 DMA often serves as the target for downside corrections, so if gold has reached that point already after a month and a half/two month decline, then the correction has pretty well worn itself out. Gold in euros is looking plumb perky, like it's itching to rise.

The
GOLD PRICE stumbled through that support at $1,650 and fell clean to $1,642, then thought better of itself and bounced up to close at $1,648.70. Trading over $1,650 in the aftermarket.

The GOLD PRICE decline in December and early April touched or pierced that 300 DMA (now 1,618.36), but I mean "touched" solely and then ran away. On the other hand, gold stands below its 160 (now 1,691.82). I'd have to say that whenever gold reaches that (now rising) 300 DMA, it sucks buyers out of the woodwork.

Oh, and GOLD closed below its 20 DMA (1658.39) today, which is a little fishy. Other indicators show no sign of further steep or sudden declines.

The SILVER PRICE chart just don't look right. Looks crazy, like a New Mexican mesa rising out of the desert floor of 3150c. Folks, that just doesn't normally happen. Looks like somebody hit silver in the head with a ball peen hammer.

Never mind. the SILVER PRICE continues to hang on above 3100c, positive for us. MACD and RSI are flat and offer no clues. Working in our favor is silver's 7 month dance with its 300 DMA, now under, now over, and under again. Stands today at 3520c. Silver needs to pull out of this pretty soon.

I know a bunch of y'all will grow exceeding wrathful with me, but I believe that the Stupid Party is setting Bernard O'Bama up for a win this fall by running Mitt "I Have No Personality" Romney. CFR candidate Romney differs not a whit from CFR candidate O'Bama, and surprise, both will appoint more CFR functionaries, wage more wars, and blow more money. Question is, how do you like your hogwash? Full strength from the Stupider Party, or watered down from the Stupid Party?

The Stupid Party and the media have buried the only candidate who differed from the CFR Establishment, Ron Paul, so once again you have no choice in the Potemkin Election. I have no tears left to cry, I just grit my teeth and pray Tennessee will survive these foreign fools.

But on to pleasanter things, like markets today.

Stock indices diverged. Dow rose 71.82 points (0.56%) to 12,921.41 while the NASDAQ composite and S&P500 fell. S&P500 lost 0.69 to 1,369.57. Seems that Apple is on a tear -- a downward tear - and it lost 4.2% today, weighing heavily on those indices since Apple is not in the 30 blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Now none of them smart folks on Wall Street had any clue that Apple was about to tank. Why, its market capitalization passed the whole GDP of Poland and Belgium, and then of Spain, Greece, and Portugal combined, and then of all the rest of US retail stocks, but them smart boys with the pointy shoes never dreamed Apple wouldn't keep on rising everlastingly.

Y'all, you don't need to be a genius to beat these boys, you just have to bridle your greed and remember this: if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Or if that's too complicated for your memory, try this: when everybody finally agrees, they are likely every one wrong.

But, shucks, I'm no more'n a natural born fool from Tennessee, and ain't never even seen a pair of them Gucci pointy-toed shoes, let alone owned one. Mercy, we just got shoes here two years ago!

Stocks today, even the Dow Industrials, look toppy again. If the Dow can't pierce 13,000 tomorrow, then it has painted out another double top as it fixes to slide again. S&P500 don't even look that good.

See-saw, see-saw, which way rocked currencies today? Dollar index lost 36.6 basis points, 2/3 of what it gained on Friday, and nobody even winced. Left the scabby dollar index at 79.522, and its course sideways. 50 DMA at 79.33, 20 DMA at 79.48, so it barely has a positive momentum, but other indicators are flat as a gridiron, so don't look for the dollar to run off to the upside. Be lucky if it even wakes up tomorrow.

The euro, the bottom-feeding catfish of currencies, fell off badly when the day opened but rose nearly to the downtrend line. Remains below crucial 62 DMA, and looks sorry as gully dirt. Ain't no future there, although it rose today 0.45% to $1.3136.

The rising sun smiled on the yen today. It gained 0.65% to 124.39c (Y80.39/$US1), and closed above its 50 DMA (123.58). Lay all that aside and look at the chart with a big old slide from 131.52 in February to 118.93 in March, like a ski jump, then a recovery to 124. It's so far below the 200 DMA (127.77) it would need field glasses to spot it from where it sits. Looks weak. 125.2 is the 50% correction, and as a FIRST measure the yen will have to conquer that level before it gets much attention.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, April 13, 2012

Gold Price Rose 1.9 Percent for the Week to Close at $1,659.10 Must Hold Above $1,613

Gold Price Close Today : 1,659.10
Gold Price Close 5-Apr : 1,628.50
Change : 30.60 or 1.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 3138
Silver Price Close 5-Apr : 3171.6
Change : -33.60 or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.871
Gold Silver Ratio 5-Apr : 51.346
Change : 1.52 or 3.0%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01891
Silver Gold Ratio 5-Apr : 0.01948
Change : -0.00056 or -2.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 160.10
Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Apr : $ 165.78
Change : $ (5.68) or -3.4%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.745
Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Apr : 8.020
Change : -0.27 or -3.4%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 409.48
Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Apr : 411.78
Change : -2.30 or -0.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,849.59
Dow Industrial 5-Apr : 13,060.14
Change : -210.55 or -1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,370.26
S&P 500 5-Apr : 1,398.08
Change : -27.82 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index : 79.888
US Dollar Index 5-Apr : 80.070
Change : -0.182 or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,581.60
Platinum Price Close 5-Apr : 1,600.00
Change : -18.40 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 643.20
Palladium Price Close 5-Apr : 646.10
Change : -2.90 or -0.4%

The
SILVER and GOLD PRICE dropped today. Silver lost 3.5% and gave up 113.5c, all the 100.4c it had gained yesterday and then some, closing at 3138c. GOLD PRICE gave back $20.40, virtually all the $20.50 it had gained yesterday, and closed at 1,659.10.

None of this was good, but also not nearly fatal. The GOLD PRICE low today at $1,649.40 matched yesterday's. Gold continues in the same situation that has lasted all week: as long as it remains above $1,630, it is trending up. Clearly a line in that battle has been drawn at $1,650, so if gold crumples there on Monday, it promises to sink all the way to $1,630.00

This week the GOLD PRICE has reached the 38.2% correction of its Sept -Dec. fall. More, it stands under a cluster of converging moving averages -- 50, 150, and 200 -- and strong lateral resistance at $1,682. Of course I know that this sideways movement is frustrating, but as long as it remains above $1,613 gold will keep on rising.

On a less cheery note, the 3 year weekly gold chart shows what MIGHT be a breakdown. A close below $1,613 would confirm that breakdown and then we've got a painful mess. If that mess didn't catch at $1,525 (last low), it could drop to $1,475. that would finish off a monstrous bullish falling wedge which then would explode upside.

Now I know every one of us hears the LAST thing we're told, so right now y'all run back and read the next to the last paragraph. I expect $1,613 to hold.

Thinking about the weekly chart, look at the SILVER PRICE weekly chart, where a different picture emerges. There silver has formed a long even-sided triangle, from which it will break out to the upside. No talking out of both sides of the mouth there. Silver whispers gold will not drop.

Silver's 5-day chart looks unnatural. Flat as a fritter between 3190 and 3100 Monday through half of Thursday, then a straight up leap to 3250, and a fall off today to 3138c. Stay with this: silver must hold 3100c. Close below that pulls silver down. No close below that, silver will move sideways or rise.

Don't miss the Dow in Gold Dollars, which dropped the week G$5.68 (0.249 ounces). It is trying to break down.

End of the SILVER and GOLD correction draweth nigh. Lower prices are offering you one last chance to buy a cheap ticket for the bull ride.

Sometimes when everything is dragging the ground, you have to ask yourself which is the least worst.

On bad news out of Europe today (surprise, surprise) the dollar jumped while stocks tanked.

I wonder some times if the Nice Government Men "tasked" with manipulating the dollar have some Big Hancho In Charge ("Big Hick") who at the end of the week looks at the market and "adjusts" it. Why am I so durned suspicious? Well, the nasty US Dollar index traded down, down this week, made a new low for the move which in any free market would have sent it shooting lower after breaking the 20 and 50 day moving averages, but today did it sink like a watch in a churn? Nope, rose 54.9 basis points (0.71%) to 79.888. What can I say? Only note with distaste and disgust that the dollar must rise over 80 to turn up, and close below 78.50 to break down.

Japanese yen has reached the 124 level and stalled, sliding down the underside of its 50 DMA. Last three days Yen has remained virtually flat, and today closed 123.69c against yesterday's 123.66c, against Wednesday's 123.60c. One begins to wonder if the rally we have seen was no more than an upward correction in a longer down move.

News leaked out today that Spanish banks' borrowing from the European Central bank surged to new highs in March. The capitalist rats are leaving the socialist ship, pulling money out of Spanish banks and leaving them on the mercy of the ECB for funding Spanish stocks dropped 3.6% today (think a 450 point drop in the Dow) to a new 3 year low as Spanish bond yields reached for 6%. Credit Default Swaps on Spanish debt reached their highest price on record. Italian bond yields rose and all Euro stock markets shrank. All this places Spain on the candidate list for Next European Bailout, and helps explain why the euro fell 0.8% today to $1.3081. If you have euros, sell 'em.

Monday's fall and the rest of the week's weakness (owch! Sorry) leave behind a double, maybe triple, stop in the Dow. Can't yet write out of the picture a possible brief surge to 13,300 or higher (only a close below 12,250 would do that), but stocks look sick.

Today the Dow lost 136.99 (think 1.05%) to close at 12,849.59. S&P500 closed down 17.31 or 1.25% at 1,370.26.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, April 12, 2012

The Gold Price Will Jump to $1,750 maybe $1,800 Once Through this Clustered Resistance

Gold Price Close Today : 1679.50
Change : 20.50 or 1.24%

Silver Price Close Today : 3251.50
Change : 100.4 cents or 3.19%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.653
Change : -0.995 or -1.89%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01936
Change : 0.000366 or 1.93%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1602.50
Change : 21.20 or 1.34%

Palladium Price Close Today : 652.55
Change : 16.45 or 2.59%

S&P 500 : 1,387.57
Change : 18.86 or 1.38%

Dow In GOLD$ : $159.84
Change : $ 0.30 or 0.19%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.732
Change : 0.014 or 0.19%

Dow in SILVER oz : 399.40
Change : -6.98 or -1.72%

Dow Industrial : 12,986.58
Change : 181.19 or 1.41%

US Dollar Index : 79.32
Change : -0.394 or -0.49%

Okay, fess up: I called the
GOLD PRICE wrong yesterday. It wasn't tapped and topped, it was balling up for a $20.50 jump today to $1,679.50. That's the top of a resistance band bounded above by $1,682.

Clustered here is resistance from several points: $1,682 lateral resistance, 200 DMA at $,1691.50, 150 DMA at $1,694.60, 50 DMA at $1,694.60. More lateral resistance shows up at $1,705.

Does all that mean that the GOLD PRICE is deader than a hammer? Not at all. Rather, it means that once gold gets through this clustered resistance -- and the last 5 day's jump from $1,608 to $1,679.50 shows its determination -- gold will jump to $1,750, maybe $1,800 while all the shorts are wiping the smiles off their incredulous faces.

Only a GOLD PRICE close below $1,630 would invalidate this outlook.

Y'all have to figure out how long you want to jack around delaying, procrastinating, dilating, and putting off buying GOLD. Shucks, why buy at $1,680 when you can wait and buy at $1,800?

The SILVER PRICE rose 3.2% today, 100.4c to 3251.5. Since Monday, 9 April, silver has risen from a low at 3099c to 3251.5 today. I make that 152.5c -- not bad.

There's more in my craw: silver closed today above its 20 DMA (3221c) but silver's big hurdle comes at 3335c, strong lateral resistance. Once the SILVER PRICE pierces that veil, next big resistance looms at 3518, the 300 DMA.

Y'all listen: SILVER has already been dancing under and over and under its 300 DMA, a rare occurrence in this bear market. When it crosses above that mark this time, you can kiss it goodbye.

If silver closed below 3100, my hopeful upside outlook would be utterly gainsaid.

I can't be testy or sour today: it's my wife's birthday. I have too much to be thankful for.

However, I don't mind beating up on stocks and scrofulous fiat currencies for a while, just to stay in practice.

Stocks looked right spry today, to folks without much information or insight. Dow jumped 1.4% or 181.19 points to 12,986.58. Before y'all commence to jubilating, I would call to your mind that this only carries stocks back up to where they collapsed, most likely for a final kiss good-bye.

S&P500 jumped 1.38% to 1,387.57, up 18.80. Unless the Dow can scratch and claw its way over 13,000 and the S&P500 over 1,395, these jerks and twitches are no more than you'd get clamping jumper cables to a dead bullfrog.

But what do I know? I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee who lives out in the country and wants nothing more than to live and die right here. How's that for ambition?

The Scrofulous US dollar index is shedding points like a rattlesnake sheds skin. Today's 39.4 basis point drop (0.51%) took it below the 20 day moving average (79.56) a warning to all watchers that momentum might be turning down.

Look here at some other milestones. Down below, and not too killing far, is the 50 DMA (79.31) and closing below that one sends the dollar limping like Chester on Gunsmoke. But the real "line you'd better not cross" stands at 78.65. Long as the scabby dollar stays above that, it's just moving sideways. Through that it risks a fall to the 200 DMA (77.69) or further.

One thing we know from watching markets: flat doesn't usually last long. Flatness implies a market where buying and selling are perfectly balanced, which happens about twice a millennium. Course, if Nice Government Men are pulling a play, they can keep it flat a little longer -- before it blows up on 'em.

Japanese yen was flat today. Given its chart screaming it wants to advance against the Japanese economy's need to export more, expect the Nice Government Men to attack soon to drive it lower. Closed 123.66c (Y80.87).

More proof of collective insanity: the euro rose today 0.61% to $1.3190, on news that -- Spanish bond yields have risen to 6% again. Situation will continue to decompose, continue to stink while lying governments and banks say it smells of roses.

On 12 April 1947 my beloved wife, Susan, was born. She's been blessing everyone within shooting distance -- and some even farther away -- ever since. I'm not partial, just honest.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.