Wednesday, January 21, 2015

The Gold Price Gained $61 or 4.95 Percent Since Last Monday, Closing Today at $1,293.70

21-Jan-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,293.70-0.50-0.04%
Silver Price, $/oz18.180.231.29%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.165-0.948-1.31%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01410.00021.33%
Platinum Price1,277.30-9.70-0.75%
Palladium Price768.25-10.50-1.35%
S&P 5002,032.129.570.47%
Dow17,554.2839.050.22%
Dow in GOLD $s280.500.730.26%
Dow in GOLD oz13.570.040.26%
Dow in SILVER oz965.64-10.31-1.06%
US Dollar Index93.08-0.25-0.27%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE has gained $61 or 4.95% since last Monday. Silver has gained 164.4 cents or 9.94%. Beginning to look like the silver & GOLD PRICE really did turn about from down to up in that December 1 selling climax.

After jumping 17.30 yesterday, the gold price lost 50 cents today & ended Comex at $1,293.70. Silver powered up 23.2 cents (1.29%) to $18.179.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO has dropped three days running, & ended today at 71.165. For ultimate confirmation I want to see it sink below that December low at 69.36.

Markets are like pendulums, swinging back & forth between oversold & overbought, schizophrenic gloom or hilarity. Y'all have to rise above that like adults,'' he said, nearly bursting inwardly with joy over silver's rise today.

The gold price has reached a point of great resistance, and today made the first half of a key reversal, that is, traded up into higher territory for the move, but closed the day lower. That must be confirmed, however, by another lower close tomorrow, or it evaporates. Might just be pausing here to cut through $1,300.

Why is $1,300 critical support? Well, back in 2010 when gold really started to move, it broke through that barrier, then early in 2011 touched back to it. And since roughly mid 2013 gold has been oscillating around that figure. In 2014 the gold price failed over and over at that line, & spent most of the year below it, so $1,300 is big resistance.

On the other hand, the look of the advance so far suggests it will not stop for much breathing & blowing before it hits $1,350, the target of the upside-down head & shoulders. Tomorrow's announcement from the ECB is expected to say they will buy 50 billion euros worth of bonds monthly. I can't see how that could possibly harm gold, but short term markets can do anything.

The SILVER PRICE big overhead resistance comes at $18.60, the line that held from 2014 until September 2014. Short sellers will be lined up at $18.60 like bums at a soup kitchen waiting for a baloney sandwich. Silver will get through $18.60, but 'twill be a fight.

Is silver strong? Today it touched its 200 DMA ($18.47). Indicators show this move is high, but not yet just stinking oversold. News out of the ECB tomorrow might also boost silver.

Just have to wait & let that ECB mess clear out. However, it IS time for y'all to start buying again. If it flops, buy it.

Sorry I missed y'all yesterday, but I was plumb worn out, worn out to the gills, & So Susan & I decided to spend the Lee-Jackson holiday making a little trip. We drove to Chattanooga to eat at my favorite restaurant in the world, The Boat House, and it did not disappoint. Next day we drove down to breathtaking Northern Alabama, spent the night at Desoto State Park and yesterday hiked (not very far, I assure y'all) to see four (4) waterfalls. My wife would rather hike ten miles to see a waterfall than eat pecan pie, & doesn't blush a bit to make me walk with her. It was a most refreshing trip. I promise, y'all will like me better today because of it.

Built into the universe & human nature is the cycle of work & rest. Everyone of us pays when we ignore that sabbath principle.

Y'all get your perspective here a moment. Tomorrow the European Central Bankers are supposed to announce some sort of bond buying (Quantitative Easing) program, on the bogus basis that the European economy is suffering from a want of inflation. This is so ridiculous I won't insult y'all's intelligence refuting it, 'cause anybody who'd believe that is too dumb to use a claw hammer. That announcement has markets spooked, all the more after the Swiss Central bank broke manners and (1) sucked the market into thinking it was going to do the opposite of taking off the cap on the Franc, & (2) announced it on a Thursday rather than on Sunday, thus catching even more currency traders in its net. Markets are skittish.

Add to those shenanigans an election in Greece on the 25th, where the likeliest winner party may want to take Greece out of the euro currency system.

It's enough to make people who are used to lapping up gravy from markets overflowing with central bank money downright anxious. Thoughts of having to work for a living are flitting through their heads, & they don't like that.

Stocks are as nervous as a politician in Church. Dow has "gained" for the last three days, but it and the S&P500 both are merely between their 20/50 DMAs & 200 DMA. If either breaks the lows of December (17,067 & 1,972) all you will hear is the gigantic whooshing! of the world's biggest vacuum cleaner.

Dow today rose 39.05 (0.22%) to 17,554.28, S&P500 climbed 9.57 (0.47%) to 2,032.12.

Can stocks rally from here? Sure, but they won't go very far.

Yes, sir, the Dow in Gold closed yesterday, and yet again today, BELOW its 200 day moving average. It hooked back up 0.26% today, but remains underwater. Ended the day at G$280.52 gold dollars (13.57 oz) with the 200 dma at G$280.93 (13.59 oz). It has lost G$15.30 (0.74 oz) or 5.1% in the last week.

Dow in silver sank 0.81% today to end at $$1,247.53 silver dollars (964.89 oz). Both have fallen out of their Gator Jaws (broadening top) pattern, and now the Dow in Gold has fallen below its 200 DMA. Same mark for the Dow in Silver lieth not far off, at S$1,203.96 (931.19 oz).

US dollar index rose yesterday 35 basis points to 93.33, I reckon by folks trying to hedge whatever the ECB criminals do tomorrow, but it fell off 25 basis points (0.27%) to 93.08 today. With a low at 92.36, it looks like sales were pressing it down. Way overbought & ready for a correction. 10 year T- note yield rose today, pointing to investors selling US treasuries.

Some rats jumped to another ship today, driving the euro up 0.45% to $1.1605. Now try to fathom why the prospect of a central bank GUARANTEEING to depreciate a currency could actually drive it up. Or maybe some folks are buying the rumor (bond-buying) and will sell the news (the announcement). Owning euros or any other nasty, lying, scrofulous central bank currency is just like jiggling around with a bottle of nitroglycerin in your pocket. Sooner or later it'll blow up and take you with it.

The yen has a little sidewise, crippled, crabbed up rally going. Today it closed at 84.89, up 0.84% and above both its 20 & 50 DMAs, while nobody's paying much attention.

West Texas Intermediate Crude rose 2.44% to $47.78. A bottom is possible, barely.

Every one of y'all ought to read David Stockman's razor sharp 16 January article, "In Praise of Price Discovery -- The Market is Off Its Lithium." http://bit.ly/1yv7tbe Don't miss it. It will bring all the hanging threads into one fabric for you.

DON'T BOTHER TELLING ME ANY MORE THAT CENTRAL BANKS & GOVERNMENTS DON'T MANIPULATE MARKETS Department:

From the 17 January edition of the paper Neue Z├╝rcher Zeitung a reader in Germany kindly sent me an interview between the NZZ and Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan. Here's the first question and answer, in my translation:

NZZ Question: Mr. Jordan, the [Swiss] National Bank has decided to give up the cap on the Swiss franc/euro exchange rate. Is that now a lasting commitment of the SNB to flexible exchange rates, or will you perhaps soon announce a newly-conceived cap?

SNB President Jordan's answer: We have said good-bye to a cap. We will, however, still take the general exchange rate situation into account in our decisions and will, when necessary, intervene in the foreign currency markets. [end quotation]

I keep on telling y'all, currency exchange rates are as real and reliable as carnival fortunetellers. If urine tests were read like exchange rates are, we'd all be dead.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.