Thursday, January 29, 2015

The Gold Price Lost $31.30 or 2.4 Percent to Close at $1,254.60

29-Jan-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,285.60-31.30-2.38%
Silver Price, $/oz16.76-1.31-7.25%
Gold/Silver Ratio76.7343.8315.26%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0130-0.0007-4.99%
Platinum Price1,216.80-40.80-3.24%
Palladium Price772.90-24.70-3.10%
S&P 5002,021.2519.090.95%
Dow in GOLD $s279.9910.193.78%
Dow in GOLD oz13.540.493.78%
Dow in SILVER oz1,039.3287.839.23%
US Dollar Index94.940.180.19%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE today lost $31.30 or 2.4% to close Comex at $1254.60. Silver lost $1.31 (7.3%) to $16.758.

Interesting that the newswire reports this evening all say that selling in precious metals was caused by the Fed's statement yesterday, but nobody did any selling yesterday. Nobody thought to sell until around noon today. Don't that seem odd to y'all? Don't that have the fingerprints of the Nice Government Men all over it? They just hit the stops.

"Hitting the stops" means this: In futures markets most traders, at least the one who survive, use open sell stops orders below their long positions. Floor traders who are holding the stop orders and anybody else who can read a chart knows about where the stops are. To move the market all a body needs do is to drive it down to hit those stops, where all those sell orders will suddenly kick in, knocking the market for a loop.

Well, is today's move significant or just a manipulation? Could turn out two ways. First way is that it was a sure-enough move and people are fleeing silver & gold. From here they drop more. Say the GOLD PRICE drops to $1,225 & silver to $15.50.

Second way, and the way I'm inclined to, is that silver & gold underwent a selling climax today, exacerbated by a little NGM "push," and that today posted the lows for the little correction. After all, I was looking for a gold correction down as far as $1,255.60, the last low and roughly the 200 DMA. Low today hit $1,252.10. When you set a target, you don't go home in tears because it's hit, you buy there.

What about the SILVER PRICE? What about it? It punched into the neckline it had left behind, but stuck right at it on close. Yes, it dropped through its 20 dma ($17.13) but stopped above the 50 dma ($16.61). Low only hit $16.74, and stopped above the uptrend line from that diamond reversal formation we left behind a couple of weeks ago.

Looks to me like a touchback to breakout point, a final kiss good-bye, for both metals. But shucks! What do I know? Why, I'm no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. Shucks, I can hardly spell s-i-n-t-r-u-l b-a-n-k.

One cause for the jubilatin' on Wall Street was an employment report that said the number of unemployment claims filed in the last report period was the lowest in 15 years. Well, I reckon! Most people don't have a job, & you got to have a job first before you can get unemployed and file a claim.

But anyway, who believes those lyin' reports from government bureaus? Two weeks from now while no reporters are looking they'll "revise" the dickens out of this report and it'll turn out to the highest number in 15 years or no number at all. I don't know more believe those reports than I'd believe a greasy stranger offering me candy to take a ride with him.

Stocks ran up. Dow levitated 225.48 (1.31%) to 17,416.85. S&P500 added 19.09 (0.95%) to 2,021.25. Instructive to look at the charts on the right.

Yesterday both indices closed below an even-sided triangle forming since January. Look at the Dow. One might normally expect, in the absence of some Deus Ex Machina like the Nice Government Men, it would follow through today, slice through that nearby 200 dma, and proceed to waterfall several hundred points. Nope, it got just a mite too close to that 17,067 December low, so SOMEbody had to do SOMEthing.

Or not. Maybe we were just a-watchin' Mother Market at work here.

Today set back the Dow in metals, but not by much. Dow in gold rose 3.26% to G$286.10 gold dollars (13.84 troy ounces). And it closed above its 200 dma (G$281.55 or 13.62 oz), and barely above that uptrend line from August 2013.

Dow in Silver
Dow in silver jumped almost back to its 20 DMA (S$1,331.46 silver dollars or 1,028.8 oz). It rose 7.56% to S$1,328.94 or 1,027.85. Look at the chart on the right and you'll see it looks like a kid sliding down a hill on a skateboard. Since momentum indicators are trying to turn up, we may have to put up with this for a little while.

US dollar index rose 18 basis points (0.18%) to 94.94. Its toppy look will remain if it can't clamber above 95.85, the high for this move (4 days ago)

That euro is just a blowin' and goin' -- but not much. Rose 0.34% to $1.1321. Just fiddling around off its last low. No proof of anything but that it's sorry as gully dirt.

Yen has traded out into the nose cone of an even-sided triangle but can't break out. Further it trades into that point, less springy the eventual breakout will be. Lost 0.59% to 84.55 today.

I reckon I'm just stubborn. Silver & gold have been too powerful coming up off those November and December lows, & not even today's action convinces me they have finished their move up.

I had planned a special offer for today because I thought it might offer a low spot to buy. Y'all have heard my mind. I think it's a good place to buy, but I will tell y'all right now, I could be wrong, so caveat emptor. If y'all don't want to buy anything, I'll be just as glad to hold on to it. Gold don't rust.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.