Friday, January 09, 2015

The Gold Price Rose $30 or 0.63 Percent this Week Closing Up at $1,216

2-Jan-159-Jan-15Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,186.001,216.0030.002.5
Silver Price, $/oz.15.73416.3860.6524.1
Gold/Silver Ratio75.37874.210-1.168-1.6
Silver/gold ratio0.01330.01350.00021.6
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)310.83301.53-9.29-3.0
Dow in gold ounces15.0414.59-0.45-3.0
Dow in Silver ounces1,133.401,082.47-50.93-4.5
Dow Industrials17,832.9917,737.37-95.62-0.5
S&P5002,058.202,044.81-13.39-0.7
US dollar index91.4392.160.730.8
Platinum Price1,203.001,229.1026.102.2
Palladium Price794.85800.155.300.7

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Gold Silver Ratio
Silver and GOLD PRICES made steady gains, 4.1% and 2.5%. GOLD/SILVER RATIO dropped during the day but closed higher, above its 50 dma, at 74.210 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. Forming a diamond top, I believe, but y'all look at the chart on the right yourselves and tell me:

Today on Comex the GOLD PRICE jumped up $7.60 (0.6%) to $1,216 and silver twitched 3.5 cents (0.2% to end at $16.386. Aftermarket shows gold at $1,223.70 and silver at $16.53.

The SILVER PRICE weekly chart (end of day, not Comex close) shows silver uptrending from 1 December and now only about fifty cents from its 20 DMA ($16.97). It is testily moving up.

Silver Price
For the week silver ended above its moving averages so its momentum points higher. Indicators also point skyward, but most interesting is the possible diamond reversal pattern. If that's what it is, then next week a close just a few cents higher breaks silver out of the diamond. Just above about $17.25 and roughly in line with the last high at $17.35 is the downtrend line from the August 2013 high. One good day's rally and silver will punch through that resistance. Any price below $15.75 would violate the diamond to the downside. Chart on the right:

Gold Price
The gold price weekly chart closed higher, and gold snugged up against the Oct 2012 downtrend line like a fat fly on the ceiling. Gold also closed above its 20 week MA ($1,211.79). Chart on the left:

Gold Price
On the daily chart, gold has nearly completed the upside-down head and shoulders I have been describing to y'all. It's plumb left behind its moving averages and is stretching for that neckline at $1,235. Generally when a market breaks through one of those necklines it leaps fast. See what I mean on the right:

Silver and gold prices are set up to chalk higher prices next week.

The week don't lie. Despite all the jubilatin' on Wall Street, stocks ended the week gravity-challenged. Dollar Index rose, but may have peaked today; ain't enough left of the poor euro to kick it to the curb and wash up the goo. Even Platinum and Palladium got in on the fun, with platinum up 2.2% and palladium 0.7% higher.

Here's an aside about how prices respond in a free market. Last year live weight feeder cattle in Tennessee were bring $1.46/lb live weight -- on the hoof. This year they're bringing $2.20/lb, up 32%. Drought in the west has cut the national cattle herd to a 63 + year low. Drought made ranchers sell off cattle, even breeding stock, so that price won't bounce back soon. Takes two years to grow a mama cow, and most of another year for her to calve. That has taken the price of cows to the moon. And none of this has anything to do with "inflation, just natural events and cause and effect. My point? Put more beef in your freezer -- prices will rise.

Speaking of cattle, the Labor Department issued another lying report today, claiming that the US economy created 252,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate had dropped to 5.6%. Whoops, average waged fell 0.2% and worker's gained only 1.7% in wages in 2014, almost enough to buy an extra hamburger a month. Whoops -- civilian labor force participation rate was 62.7% in December, and you have to look back to February 1978 to match that low. As liars go, government liars ain't much.

Them as lives by volatility dies by volatility -- thus the stock market this week. In spite of the Dow's Wednesday gains of 212.88 and Thursday's 323.35, stock market ended the week lower. Owch. Today the Dow lost 170.50 (0.95%) to 17,737.37 while the S&P500 shucked 17.33 (0.84%) to 2,044.81. Probably yesterday marked the end of the very latest wave up and beginning of next wave down. Dow ended slightly above its 20 DMA, S&P500 dead on both the 20 and 50. Precarious as a window washer on a 100 story building.

Dow in silver and Dow in gold are still drawing on their charts Gator Jaws or broadening top formations. Stocks' brief rally this week took them up to the (closely aligned) 20 and 50 DMAs, but today they dove again, pretty classic move for a downtrend.

Dow in Gold
Dow in gold slid 2.13% to G$299.74 gold dollars (14.50 troy oz), below that G$300 mark. Chart on the right:

Dow in Silver
Dow in silver coughed up 1.82% to perch at S$1,388.11 silver dollars (1,073.69 oz). Look for the Chart on the left:

I watch the DiG and DiS because they offer the most reliable indicator for the long term trend of silver and gold. When silver and gold prices are gaining against stocks, investor trust and confidence in the financial system is shrinking, and that determines the primary trend.

West Texas Intermediate Crude shriveled 1.45% to $48.21/bbl. Put a mirror under its nose, it may be showing signs of life.

US Dollar Index
US Dollar index today backed off 41 basis points (0.45%) to 92.16, just as it hit its upper channel trend line. Given how overbought it is, it's liable to correct at any time. Deeper suspicions stir my breast about its ability to climb higher. Chart on the right:

Euro had its best day in a long time, which is like being served a better grade of oatmeal on death row. Rose 0.42% -- for the first time in the last 7 days -- and closed at $1.1843. If y'all are planning on a European vacation, better hop a jet now.

Yen also gained today, 0.98% to 84.36c/Y100. Has climbed above its 20 DMA and struggled over its downtrend line and truly has a leetle uptrend going. Strong as a mouse-pup.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
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