Friday, December 20, 2013

Has the Gold Price Made a Double Bottom?

Gold Price Close Today : 1,205.10
Gold Price Close 13-Dec-13 : 1,235.70
Change : -30.60 or -2.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.418
Silver Price Close 13-Dec-13 : 19.559
Change : -0.141 or -0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.061
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Dec-13 : 63.178
Change : -1.117 or -1.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.0161
Silver Gold Ratio 13-Dec-13 : 0.01583
Change : 0.0003 or 1.8%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 278.25
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Dec-13 : $ 263.57
Change : -14.68 or 5.6%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 13.46
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Dec-13 : 12.750
Change : 0.71 or 5.6%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 835.36
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Dec-13 : 805.53
Change : 29.83 or 3.7%

Dow Industrial : 16,221.08
Dow Industrial 13-Dec-13 : 15,755.36
Change : 465.72 or 3.0%

S&P 500 : 1,818.52
S&P 500 13-Dec-13 : 1,775.82
Change : 42.70 or 2.4%

US Dollar Index : 80.71
US Dollar Index 13-Dec-13 : 80.210
Change : 0.50 or 0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,331.90
Platinum Price Close 13-Dec-13 : 1,362.00
Change : -30.10 or -2.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 697.85
Palladium Price Close 13-Dec-13 : 715.75
Change : -17.90 or -2.5%

The GOLD PRICE regained $10.10 to $1,205.10 on Comex. Silver rose 27.5 cents to 1941.8 cents.

I'm still scratching my head -- why is silver holding up better than the gold price? Silver's MACD hasn't crossed over in a sell signal, gold's has. Stocks have made less headway against silver than gold. Maybe it's just marginal & silver will catch up, or maybe it says something else, like a non-confirmation of weakness.

Think a minute about a double bottom. Markets make two bottoms about the same level, with a recovery inbetween. Those two bottoms mark where the market has found its footing & reverses. If silver & GOLD PRICES intend a double bottom, they're about there. The gold price low yesterday was $1,186 intraday, versus June's $1,179.40. The SILVER PRICE low yesterday was 1910c, versus 1817c in June, although at the beginning of December silver did hit 1889c. All of that qualifies as a double bottom, because the market needn't hit the selfsame price both times.

The double bottom is one possibility for a reversal. Another is a further slide down to the low $1,100s for gold and 1700c for silver.

However they might bottom, they must flash some sign, some confirmation, they have indeed turned. We don't have that yet.

On weekly charts silver is floating just beneath its downtrend line, while the gold price stands at $1,203 looking up at the line at $1,350 above. An uptrend shows week after week higher prices, with only a few weeks lower. That trend must change to confirm a reversal.

Be calm. Be patient. We will likely see a metals' low by year end. Our business has considerably picked up in the last three weeks, which itself says buyers are coming back into the market.

The truth is still the truth, cause still brings effect.

Big week for stocks, bad week for metals. Again. Dow gained 3% this week while the S&P500 gained 2.4%. US dollar index may have turned up. Gold, platinum, & palladium took a beading, down 2.5% while silver lost only 0.7% (14.1 cents). You know it ain't good when you're reduced to saying things like that.

By reaching new highs today, stocks showed that they intend to move higher still. Dow gained 42 (0.26%) to 16,221.08 & the S&P500 gained 8.92 (0.49%) to 1,818.52. This will likely continue the rest of the year, as stocks have a strong seasonal tendency to rise into year-end.

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver blipped down after a long rise this week. Dow in Gold at end of day dropped 1.12% to 13.48 oz. Dow in Silver dropped 0.92% to 833.86 oz. Both indicators are plainly floating to higher altitudes.

Schizophrenic US dollar index pierced the downtrend line & rose as high as 81 today, only to turn and drop 8 basis points to 80.71 by day's end. Will it rise or not? I reckon it will, but if so it needs to climb over 81 next week. Euro rose 0.1% today to $1.3676 but it's uptrend seems broken. Yen turned a bit today, up 0.16% to 96.09 cents per Y100. No telling what will happen there.

One thing we know about dealers in the gold & silver market: a large number of them would steal the quarters off a dead man's eyes. Wherefore, y'all ought to be very cautious. I got a slug of emails in the last couple of days offering "Rare Silver Dollar Coins Poised To Jump in Value" at only $39 each. Only 3,805 for sale.

Look at the fine print: Each coin is guaranteed to be "in Brilliant Uncirculated to Fine condition."

Those are technical grades, BU and F. Since BU costs about $39 at wholesale, I heartily doubt these philanthropists will send you BU. You'll be lucky to get any Fines.

These are the same coins I offered on 4 December at $26.50 each. And if you want to pay me $39 each, let me know and I'll get a TRUCKLOAD for you.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.