Wednesday, December 11, 2013

The Gold Price Gave Up $3.90 to $1,258.50

Gold Price Close Today : 1262.40
Change : 27.10 or 2.19%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.256
Change : 0.612 or 3.12%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.322
Change : -0.562 or -0.89%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01605
Change : 0.000143 or 0.90%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1387.80
Change : -7.20 or -0.52%

Palladium Price Close Today : 738.00
Change : -1.30 or -0.18%

S&P 500 : 1,802.62
Change : -5.75 or -0.32%

Dow In GOLD$ : $261.56
Change : $ (6.61) or -2.47%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.653
Change : -0.320 or -2.47%

Dow in SILVER oz : 788.56
Change : -27.23 or -3.34%

Dow Industrial : 15,973.13
Change : -52.40 or -0.33%

US Dollar Index : 79.979
Change : -0.177 or -0.22%

The GOLD PRICE gave up $3.90 to $1,258.50 while silver added 4.2 cents to 2029.8c.

This was a satisfactory day, despite the GOLD PRICE retreat. Gold merely touched back to its 20 DMA ($1,252) and stopped. This came after a brisk three-day climb. That's sound, that's solid. Also, volume dropped today.

On Comex the SILVER PRICE actually added 4.2 cents but at day's end it was down 14 cents to 2027c, still way above the 20 dma (1997c). All other indicators still point in the same direction: up.

What I missed telling y'all yesterday is that over the last three to four days both metals have pierced the downtrend line from the November highs.

That downtrend line forms the top of a falling wedge, by the way, and these have fooled us in the past. They ought to break out upside, and they have been doing that for the last year and more, but then they keep failing and falling back. Wherefore, let us demand more confirmations, such as

1. A close above the 50 day moving averages, now $1,278 and 2113c.

2. Closes above the last highs, 2309c and $1,362.

3. Remaining above support about 2000c and $1,252.

So what can I say to all this? That we tentatively have a bottom, 6 December's closes at 1946.5c and $1,230.30, AS LONG AS they continue to meet the hurdles above.

I bought a tiny bit today. This is getting better day by day, but I am still braced against a disappointment.

Better pay attention to those key reversals and descending peaks. Otherwise, they'll come back to bite you like they did stocks today.

Stocks gained 204.02 in two days last week, in one day alone adding 198.69 points. In the last two days, they've lost 182 points, and that's not over. Another caveat: got to watch those B-waves. Markets often correct in a wave down, wave up, wave down pattern -- ABC. B-wave corrections are often so strong they'll fool you into believing the correction has passed. It hasn't.

Dow today lost 129.6 (0.81%) to 15,843.53. S&P500 misplaced some 20.4 points (1.13%) to land on 1,782.22. All the other indices I watch fell today, too, and ended at the lows.

What's stacked against stocks? Both indices closed beneath their 20 day moving average (15,970 and 1,796). S&P500 is heading for the upper boundary line of its former trading range where it "threw over" (crossed above the upper boundary). Dow closed right at that line today. MACD honked a SELL signal on 1 December, RSI is falling, Rate of Change for both has gone into negative territory. All this witnesses that momentum points firmly down and lower prices will come.

Now let us turn to my fav-O-rite indicators, the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver. Oh, yes, both dropped today, yea, and both stand well below their 20 DMA (12.77 oz and 800 oz). MACD, RSI, RoC all point down. Dow in gold ended the day at 12.6 oz (G$260.46 gold dollars), lower by 0.49%. Dow in silver fell to 778.32 oz, losing 0.55% from yesterday.

Yea, I confess, it is too early to proclaim with certainty that silver and gold have turned up against stocks, but that appears to be the case. (Remember, these indicators RISE as stocks gain value against silver and gold, and FALL when stocks are weaker than silver and gold.) Both indicators have traced double tops, and now turned down. Closes below the 50 and 200 day moving averages will add confirmation, but the big confirmation comes when they close once more beneath the long term downtrend line. For DiS that's about 595 oz right now, for DiG about 10.2 oz.

YO! Nice Government Men! YO! Don't y'all care about the US dollar index? It's dropping like your glasses into the lake when they slip off your face fishing. Today the dollar index lost 8 more basis points (0.11%) to 79.88, and sits below that support line that stretches back to late 2011. This does not look promising. If it falls, nothing stands underneath to catch the buck except, oh, 78, or 74.75.

The mighty euro, Franken-currency extraordinaire, rose 0.19% today to $1.3786, pushing hard for the downtrend line at $1.3800 +. I know all those German manufacturers are just thrilled to see the rising euro price their exports out of the market against the US and Japan.

Yen continued a two day winning streak -- two day? -- rising 0.40% to 97.65 cents/Y100. It might have caught, but must rise a long way to confirm that change of heart.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.