Monday, December 09, 2013

The Gold Price Gained $5 to Close at $1,235.30

Gold Price Close Today : 1235.30
Change : 5.00 or 0.41%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.644
Change : 0.179 or 0.92%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.884
Change : -0.321 or -0.51%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01590
Change : 0.000081 or 0.51%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1367.60
Change : 12.20 or 0.90%

Palladium Price Close Today : 734.50
Change : 0.95 or 0.13%

S&P 500 : 1,808.37
Change : 3.28 or 0.18%

Dow In GOLD$ : $268.17
Change : $ -1.00 or -0.37%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.973
Change : -0.048 or -0.37%

Dow in SILVER oz : 815.80
Change : -7.23 or -0.88%

Dow Industrial : 16,025.53
Change : 5.33 or 0.03%

US Dollar Index : 80.140
Change : -0.130 or -0.16%

Y'all, silver and GOLD PRICES may have turned up.

Today the GOLD PRICE gained $5 to close Comex at $1,235.30 The SILVER PRICE added 17.9 cents to 1964.4. Highs came at $1,242.60 and 1998c, lows at 1943c and $1,224.60.

Let me just tick these positives off for y'all:

1. Both silver and gold price flashed MACD buy signals on Friday. Yes, Friday.

2. Rate of Change for both stands a smidgen below turning positive (-.19% for gold and -.1% for silver).

3. Wednesday's low for both was confirmed by a double (gold) or higher (silver) bottom.

4. Both have drawn near their 20 DMAS (2004c and gold's $1,252).

5. Both may be forming an upside down head and shoulders pattern, with last week tracing out the head.

Of course, all that will mean less than nothing if confirmations don't come. First confirmation comes when they cross those 20 DMA. Next when they climb above the last peaks 2309c and $1,295.

I wish I could explain it. When I write it out it looks too thin. Maybe I'm leaving out the bounce back last Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and today. All that showed stubborn strength, being knocked down and getting right back up. Then both climbed vigorously in the aftermarket today. Something's brewing.

Maybe we get nothing more than another annoying dead cat rally, but I bought a little on Friday, just in case, and more today.

I could hardly have called stocks more wrongly last Thursday when I was expecting them to continue dropping. Instead, the Dow rose nearly 200 points on Friday.

Well, maybe that ends the little correction. Dow rose 5.33 (0.03%) today to 16,025.53 while the S&P500 gained 3.28 (0.18%) for a new high close -- not a new intraday high, but a new high close by 1.15 points.

This leaves both the Dow and the S&P500 charts looking about the same, with a lower high from Friday's and today's trading. Both have closed above their 20 DMAs, but the MACD hasn't yet flashed a buy signal. In the last 18 months, though, that cross above the 20 DMA has been a reliable mark of an upward reversal.

Yet meanwhile the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver haven't been able to rise above the 2 December highs (13.138 and 836.19 oz). They both dropped again today, basis End of Day. Dow in Silver lost 1.48% to end 808.55 oz. Rate of change is near zero, but most of all, the MACD has flashed a SELL signal. Rate of change is pointing down and near zero.

Dow in Gold lost 0.75% to end at 12.93 oz (G$267.29 gold dollars). Has formed a widening top, and the MACD klaxoned SELL last week. ROC draweth nigh to zero and lower.

Both indicators need to fall through their 20 Day Moving Averages, now 12.75 oz and 797.09 oz, to confirm a trend reversal. Both show a toppy formation, sort of a tiny Head and Shoulders, but both need that confirmation.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is sawing and sawing on that limb it's sitting on. Closed today at 80.14, down 13 basis points (0.16%) from Friday and racing for support at 80, which it appears competent to crash. Below the 50 and 20 and 200 DMAs, MACD pointing down, it's a basket case.

The Euro is taking advantage of the Dollar's woes to climb. Rose 0.24% today with a tiny gap up. Evidently targeting 1.3825, where the big resistance begins.

The yen wants none of that climbing. It dropped 0.33% to 96.85 cents/Y100, a new low for the move and right near the May low at 96.41. Closing below that would suggest the Japanese Nice Government Men are targeting some deep number -- 90 or even 80, but at a minimum 90. Crazy.

But what bothers me is WHY the dollar is dropping? Lo, I am aware that many are calling for a dollar rally, but I can't see it on the chart. I see a breakdown in September that suggests a drop to 73. However, I can't imagine how the Europeans could live with that, as it would dry up their export markets like Death Valley in a drought.

Question is whether the Fed is pushing the dollar down or the market.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.