Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Silver and Gold Prices Seem Determined to Hold on Here

20-Aug-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,293.40-1.70-0.12%
Silver Price, $/oz19.470.090.44%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.429-0.374-0.56%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01510.00010.56%
Platinum Price1,427.70-9.98-0.69%
Palladium Price868.95-12.35-1.40%
S&P 5001,986.514.910.25%
Dow in GOLD $s271.351.290.48%
Dow in GOLD oz13.130.060.48%
Dow in SILVER oz871.98-0.75-0.09%
US Dollar Index82.290.360.44%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
I went to the GOLD PRICE chart expecting to see a great cleft at 2:00 p.m, but twarn't there. In fact, the gold price traded very tightly most of the day between $1,299.30 and $1,291.10. It closed comes down $1.70 (0.12%) at $1,293.40, Then in the aftermarket gold panicked and fell to $1,289 although it later recovered to $1,290+.

SILVER PRICE gained 8.5 cents (+0.44%) to 1947.2c.

Silver and GOLD PRICES have done nothing even to whisper a reversal, but I have to wonder why they haven't fallen further, either. Both seem determined to hold on here, which suggests buyers come in at lower prices. In the last two days gold has lost its advantages, closed below its 20 and 50 day moving averages, and closed again below the downtrend line for the October 2012 high. The gold price has established a range between $1,281 and $1,325. Nothing happens until it breaks out of that prison.

Silver's low yesterday prompted a rally-ette today. Silver remains barely above the downtrend form the August 2013 high, and has been sliding down that line most of August. Support awaits at 1920c, then further down at 1861c. RSI is approaching oversold.

As I said, most hope here for silver and gold investors is that neither metal has fallen off. That makes those lows -- $1,281 and 1936c -- just that much more important lines to hold.

The Fed FOMC committee minutes from July were published today at 2:00 p.m., and stock markets interpreted their impenetrable remarks as positive for stocks. Of course, they'd have interpreted the landing of aliens in a space ship the size of New Jersey as a positive for stocks, too. Apparently a few of the persons quoted in the minutes seemed to think the Fed would need to possibly, maybe, perhaps, sometime raise interest rates sooner rather than wait for the end of the world.

Stocks were trepedatious all day long, and even after those FOMC minutes were published at 2:00 p.m. weren't sure which way to jump. At the last they jumped up (a trend in motion stays in motion, etc.), but not enough to bother writing your mama about. Dow rose 59.54 (0.35%) to 16,979.13. a long ways from the 17,138 high close. S&P500 gained 4.91 (0.25%) to close at 1,986.51, not far from the 24 July high close at 1,987.98.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver changed little. DiG rose 0.43% to 13.11 oz (G$271.01 gold dollars). DiS hooked down a tiny 0.12% to 870.86 oz (S$1,125.96 silver dollars).

Dollar lapped up the FOMC minutes. US dollar index rose 36 basis points (0.45%) to 82.29. That makes good yesterday's close above the 81.75 resistance, and points the dollars scrofulous snout at 82.75. This might happen soon, as the dollar index is more overbought than ptomaine at a carnival food alley.

Dollar's rise left the yen and euro puking sick. Euro gapped down and lost 0.45% to $1.3255, targeting $1.3100, maybe $1.2755. But the euro looked sturdy compared to the yen, which gapped much further down and slid and slid and slid, down 0.85 to 96.39, a new low for the move since July. Bottom of trading range stands at about 95.50, which it could hit tomorrow at the present rate of descent.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.