Monday, August 04, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $5.60 Today Closing at $1,287.70

4-Aug-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,287.70-5.90-0.46%
Silver Price, $/oz20.19-0.14-0.68%
Gold/Silver Ratio63.7660.1430.22%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0157-0.0000-0.22%
Platinum Price1,468.104.300.29%
Palladium Price856.05-9.45-1.09%
S&P 50013.84-5.52-28.51%
Dow in GOLD $s265.992.430.92%
Dow in GOLD oz12.870.120.92%
Dow in SILVER oz820.519.301.15%
US Dollar Index81.39-0.03-0.04%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
Gold and silver have seen better days. The GOLD PRICE lost $5.90 (0.046%) on Comex to close at $1,287.70. Silver stumbled 13.8 cents (0.68%) to land at 2019.4c, a new low for the move.

When a trend has gone low and then goes lower, it's a pretty good bet it will go lower again. I learned that at the RSI (Rocket Science Institute). The SILVER PRICE could stop at 2000c, or 1980c, or really terrorize us and fall to 1930c. Whatever it does will be finished in the next few days, probably before this week ends.

Gold's $1,287.50 is right on the 200 DMA. That probably won't hold leading to one more plunge. Personally, I'm watching $1,270 - 1265. Twill come suddenly.

In Friday's commentary I overlooked an all-telling technical development: confirmed key reversals on the MONTHLY Dow, S&P500, and New York Stock Exchange charts. Same signal flashed in the Nasdaq composite, Russell 2000, and Wilshire 5000 charts. July broke into new high territory but closed lower. August has now in its first week closed lower. Certainly it is possible that this signal might be nay-said by a rally, but that's about as likely as your cat turning up his nose at mackerel. A confirmed key reversal is a very reliable signal.

Today's "rally" in stocks was the standard-issue dead cat bounce, crossing no boundaries, scaling no moving averages, unplummeting no plummets.

I want y'all to appreciate the depth of my statement, "It broke the uptrend line from March 2009." Said uptrend line was the bottom of a nearly 5 year BEARISH rising wedge. This is not the consummation, only the commencement, but it is the commencement of a downward trend. Now the Dow takes a long time to turn, and we may see a big correction where with a rah-rah-rally toward year end, but the klaxon has klaxed.

Time to swap out of stocks and into gold and silver.

Dow clambered up 75.91 (0.46%) to 16,569.28. S&P500 rose 13.84 or 0.72% to 1,938.99. Intraday it broke the June low at 1,926 with a low at 1,916.37 on Friday. More pain lies ahead for stock investors.

The Dow in silver rose nearly to its down-trending fan line. Gained 1.28% to 821.48 oz (S$1062.12 silver dollars). That is above the 20 DMA at 812.95 (S$1,051.09) but the 20 hovers above the 200 at 806.28 (S$1,045.18). Indicators are as decisive as a lead cow at a gate, some up, some down.

Dow in gold gained 0.12 oz (0.93%) to 12.85 oz (G$265.63). 200 DMA is close below at 12.7 oz (G$262.53). Gravity has the odds here.

As one might suspect after a long, steep rise, the US dollar index, scabby Queen of the scrofulous fiat currencies, backed off again today, losing 3 basis points to 81.39. It ought to correct back to 81.15, but for now the rally is still on, only correcting.

Best thing you can say about the euro is that it is dragging out its decline slowly. Fell 0.5% today to $1.3423, but it's wearing iron boots for a marathon. Best it can hope for is a little rally to work off a severely oversold condition. Can it even pierce $1.3500? We'll see.

The yen rose a magnificent 0.3% today. It is trying to rally off last week's fatal drop out of the triangle, but at best this will accomplish no more than rising to the gap about 97.80. It appeareth bound for 96.05.

I know nothing but I keep watching that ten year treasury yield because somebody smart told me the Fed will have trouble if interest rates rise. For most of July it has looked like it wanted to break down seriously, but it keeps catching and rallying back above the downtrend line. Today it didn't do that, but it did hold on at 2.491, down 0.56%. I believe in its little heart it wants to soar.

Please accept my continuing thanks for your prayers in behalf of my friend Daniel Freemon. He is improving very slowly. Doctor is fairly sure of an encephalitis diagnosis. Please continue to pray for his full recovery.

Most of y'all don't know the name John Peter Zenger, but you ought to as he helped established freedom of the press in America. He published the New York Weekly Journal and the New York's royal governor charged him with seditious libel. As I remember under the Stuarts in England it was possible to be guilty of seditious libel even if the matter were true. In any event, after a long time in jail a jury found Zenger not guilty because "the truth is not libelous." He was acquitted 4 August 1735.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.