Wednesday, August 13, 2014

The Gold Price Climbed $4.00 to $1,312.80

13-Aug-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,312.804.000.31%
Silver Price, $/oz19.81-0.06-0.30%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.3200.4020.61%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0151-0.0001-0.61%
Platinum Price1,470.90-2.30-0.16%
Palladium Price882.103.600.41%
S&P 5001,946.7212.970.67%
Dow in GOLD $s262.010.640.24%
Dow in GOLD oz12.670.030.24%
Dow in SILVER oz840.587.130.86%
US Dollar Index81.680.110.13%

The GOLD PRICE climbed $4.00 (0.3%) to $1,312.80 but silver fell 6 cents to 1981c. Silver's relative weakness is beginning to bite.

Overnight the gold price traded flat until midnight, then started to climb. It fended off a seller's raid about 10:00 a.m., then rose to $1,316.40 before it closed at $1,312.80.

This places gold above that downtrend line from October 2012, but after a series of descending highs. Today was the second time in five days at that line that the gold price closed above the line.

The GOLD PRICE needs to master lateral resistance about $1,325, it seems, before it will advance. Silver is acting as a drag.

The SILVER PRICE tried twice to pierce 2008c, but failed and fell back, lower than yesterday, to 1970c. So far that 1975-ish support is holding, but the longer silver loiters here, the greater the chance it will fall through. First assignment for silver is to throw a leg over the 200 DMA at 2021c and commence running. While gold's indicators all point up, silver's point down.

Gold's course today makes it appear ready to climb higher, while silver's is weak and lazy. These contradictions don't last long.

Markets are sawing back and forth without any progress It's August. Europeans are off vacationing and nobody else much is watching.

The halfway point (50% correction) of the Dow's dive from the July high to the August low is 16,743. That would be a convenient place to turn down again.

Today the Dow rose 91.26 (0.55%) to 16,651.80. The S&P500 outdid the Dow, rising 12.97 (0.67%) to 1,946.72. 'Twill be interesting to observe how they behave at their 20 day moving averages (19,768 and 1,953). One more downleg is being prepared even now.

Dow in gold jigged up 0.24% today, but remains below its 200 DMA. Ended the day at 12.67 oz (G$261.91 gold dollars), still acting like a market looking for a trap door to fall through.

Dow in silver reflects silver's relative weakness right now. It rose 0.93% to 839.09 oz (S$1,084.88 silver dollars), above its 50 DMA at 825.98 oz (S$1,067.93)

US dollar index closed today at the top of its recent range, 81.68, up eleven basis points. It has remained in this range, oscillating around 81.50 resistance, for two weeks. It needs to close above 81.80 to break out of this range, or fall through 81.30 below. Odds favor higher prices.

Yen fell 0.17%to 97.63, a bad slide. Lower prices in the near future. Euro was flat today, down 0.02% at $1.3364. But that close doesn't reveal its attempt to climb up to the 20 DMA, and failure. Not great.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.