|Gold Price, $/oz||1,336.40||-22.40||-1.6|
|Silver Price, $/oz||19.78||-0.63||-3.1|
|Dow in GOLD $s||286.84||7.67||2.7|
|Dow in GOLD oz||13.88||0.37||2.7|
|Dow in SILVER oz||937.49||38.14||4.2|
|US Dollar Index||96.17||0.45||0.5|
Until today, stocks were below water for the week, as was the US dollar, & silver & gold were higher. Then the lying government jobs report came out & restored the majick spell that deceiveth the investor world.
Just for a moment, let's pretend y'all are locked up in a lunatic asylum. Surrounded by crazy people. Imagine that some of 'em run naked all the time, some of 'em wrap up in sheets and call themselves Julius Caesar, some of 'em squat on all fours and bray like a donkey, & others claim they are pigs and pour their food on the floor and eat it.
You, the lone sane person, watch all this. Would there be any reason for YOU to imitate their loony behavior? Would you go naked, or wrap up in bed sheets, or bray like a jackass, or eat off the floor? Of course you wouldn't.
Today we live in a monetary & financial lunatic asylum, run by lunatics (central bankers). But as a sane person, you know that humans are not donkeys or pigs and that you must keep your clothes on in public, so you don't participate in their loony behavior. Mostly this consists of PRETENDING that the economy is booming and that stocks OUGHT to be rising and that lying government reports really are true, and that any word that falls of Janet Yellen's fat, curled lip is important. Any sane person knows that all this is lunatic behavior & following it will land you penniless in the funny farm. None of this is real, or important, or productive, or valid. It's all silly, insane pretense.
Thus I just sit back and shake my head on days like today. First of all, I have figured out how to tell when government officials are lying: their lips are moving. Thus I will not be sucked in by LYING government jobs reports that miraculously double the number of jobs reported in May, or report huge jumps in July. Ain't none of it so, ain't none of it real, even if every jack leg smart guy on Wall Street believes it AND buys stocks because of it. I ain't loony yet, and I ain't tearing my clothes off or eating off the floor, I don't give two hoots and a holler how many people do, I ain't never gonna do it.
That is part of why I am so opposed to investing in stocks, because the whole market is an illusion created by Fed money-printing & corporate debt for buybacks. Ain't the first durned thing productive about that, so no future to it. Other part is seen in the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver charts. Both of those show a PRIMARY DOWNTREND that will last another 6-8 years. The first leg of that, 1999 - 2011 shaved 85% of the value off stocks. Correction 2011 - 2015 was nothing, peanuts, sawdust. From the December high stocks will lose ANOTHER 85% of their value against metals.
I don't have to worry, I ain't fretted, I can patiently wait for the trend to unroll, WITHOUT the risk of depending on the criminals at the Fed to keep on pumping imaginary money into an imaginary market to raise imaginary prices.
Have I made myself clear? Or am I so mealy mouthed y'all missed my point?
TODAY stocks rose based on the LYING government jobs report. Dow rose 191.48 (1.04%) to 18,543.53. S&P500 rose 18.62 (0.86%) to a new high at 2,182.87.
The US Dollar Index rose 45 basis points to 96.17 on the LYING government jobs report, from speculators begging that the Fed might just raise interest rates in September. That, of course, won't happen, BUT EVEN IF IT DOES it won't make as much difference as freezing to death at 10 degrees or 5 degrees.
(Before I forget it, if y'all watched that Dollar Index as much as I do, y'all, too would notice that week to week it doesn't change much. That would reinforce my well-founded belief that in manipulating rates, central bankers MAINLY want stability. The less change, the better.)
Higher dollar drove silver & gold to break support levels, & that took the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver down. Charts are here, http://schrts.co/ohwLZP and here, http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc
Y'all ought to be used to these silly sudden moves by now. Dow in Silver went back to its last low then bounced up through its 20 day moving average. Pray, mark that this occurs AFTER the June breakdown that shattered support from the lows that had held since February, and also completed a descending triangle by breaking down from it. All this is occurring miles below the 200 day moving average, so momentum is downward with the same intensity that pulls down a corpse weighted by concrete overshoes and chains.
Yet deal we must with the appearance of a double bottom. Yea, it might well be, but if so 'twill make itself known by piercing the 50 DMA above and that old support line. Don't bet on that, don't draw to inside straights.
Dow in gold has not fallen as enthusiastically as the Dow in silver since this began in December. However, it's fallen enough. Today carried it back up to the 20 DMA, which is hardly a turnaround but may signal some sideways movement for a while. Of course, all this upward enthusiasm could vanish Monday like mist in July sun, as it so many times has already.
Gold tumbled $22.40 (1.6%) to $1,336.40 on Comex. Silver fell 3.1% or 62.6¢ to 1978¢. Repeat after me, "Silver is always more volatile than gold, both upside AND downside."
Gold fell back through the upper boundary of its channel (pink line) & toward the 20 DMA and the uptrend line (blue), but fell not through them. So far so good, but volume shot up, confirming the move's direction, and MACD almost turned down. If it breaks that support line, it could trade back to the 50 DMA (now $1,308), about the neighborhood of the last low at $1,310.70. Monday will tell.
Silver poked through the 20 DMA (2013¢) and sliced through the blue uptrend line to close slightly below it. Bad juju. Most likely target is 1927¢, scene of the last two lows. MACD has turned down.
For those of y'all chafin' at what appears to be my 180 degree turnaround, stop. I didn't plan on, & the metals only partly hinted at, a lying government jobs report. However, the influence of that won't last any longer than a half-pint among professional drinkers. Y'all relax and go enjoy supper with your spouses tonight. The silver & gold uptrend that began in December remains safe. Besides, the yankee government and criminal central banks around the world are every one working, night and day, to drive silver & gold up. I believe in 'em.
Yankee government on 5 August 1861 levied the first income tax, a tax on individuals then, as now, one cannot find in the constitution. Thus began the Riddle of the Income Tax. Don't ask me how they do it or who it applies to. Y'all know already I'm jes' a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.