|Dow in GOLD $s||279.19||-0.60||-0.21%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||13.51||-0.03||-0.21%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||899.35||1.18||0.13%|
|US Dollar Index||95.72||0.19||0.20%|
Until today I have been fretting at the lack of retail buying and size of retail selling. They selling confirms we saw a bottom in December, but the want of buying might threaten the rally. Then I saw this article today, "Investing in gold: Big players put money into the precious metals" at http://cnb.cx/2aLP98Y
Naturally I ain't taking CNBC's word for anything, so I called up the biggest gold & silver wholesaler I know who turns over more than $5 billion yearly. I asked him if he had seen those large sales. He confirmed they are seeing lots of retail sellers and few retail buyers, but also confirmed they are seeing lots of big money business.
That takes the edge off my fear that futures market buying alone is driving this rally. That won't work, long term. As they say in the futures business, "Sooner or later, everything comes back to physicals." Futures can rise for a while in the absence of demand for physical, but not for long.
And proving once again that the Bib Banks in the US & around the world are all criminal enterprises, the Fed fined Goldman Sachs $36.3 million for fencing and using confidential Fed supervisory information. All the banks are the same: they shrug these wrist slaps off as a "cost of doing business."
What's that you say? Did any bankers go to jail? Never. Don't y'all know that bankers are ABOVE the law? The law only applies to us unwashed hoi polloi.
Anybody want to begin laying bets that interest rates have seen their low? That's another way of asking, Have bonds peaked? Looky here, http://schrts.co/d3HP1X
That's a 4-2/3 year chart of the US 30 year Treasury bond. Made an all-time, all-time high on 8 January 2016. Now meditate on this until your joints turn to water: what will happen when markets wrest interest rate control out of Janet Yellen's cold, uncalloused hands? How far will the havoc reach? What will the stampede out of bonds look like? Not saying it has started yet, but a throwover of a 30 year channel with a 4+ year rising wedge, well, it's sure enough a candidate for reversal.
Let's talk about the scrofulous, scurvy, boil-covered fiat currencies first. The least rotten of the whole rotten lot, the US dollar index, rose 0.2% to 95.72. However, it's looking at that 95.90 level like it was the gallows and the dollar index a condemned criminal. Must climb over that 95.90 level or fall further. Closed above the 50 DMA and 95.50 support, but still weak as a day old kitten.
Euro sank 0.19% to $1.1130. Criminal central bankers must sit up nights chain smoking & drinking bad coffee, trying to figure out how to manipulate the euro up. Yen was flat at 98.82.
Stocks today were confused, contradicting each other. Dow fell 2.95 (0.02%) while the S&P500 rose 0.46 (get out your microscope, 0.02%). They're broke and need a couple of zillion more dollars of Fed stimulus to get unbroke.
It's not like silver & gold had a banner day either. On Comex silver mislaid 3¢ somewhere for a 2040.6¢ close. Gold rose $2.70 to $1,358.80. Not much going on.
Gold chart appeareth here, http://schrts.co/Eyyuq1
Only thing that transpired was gold touched back to the upper channel boundary after breaking out through it a few days ago. Today it confirmed that breakout by going back to that line for one last Good-Bye Kiss. First indication you would have that my interpretation is incorrect would be a close below that blue uptrend line, tomorrow about $1,341.
Silver, remember, is always more volatile than gold, both upside & downside. Today silver bumped into its 20 DMA, but remaineth safely distant from the blue uptrend line about 2000¢. Any close below that would signal trouble. Don't borrow trouble before it signals.
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Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.