Friday, November 04, 2016

S&P500 has Dropped for Nine Days Running, its Longest Losing Streak Since December 1980

Here's the weekly scorecard:

28-Oct-164-Nov-16Change% Change
Silver Price, cents/oz.1,776.201,834.2058.003.3
Gold Price, dollars/oz.1,275.501,303.3027.802.2
Gold/silver ratio71.81171.056-0.755-1.1
Silver/gold ratio0.01390.01410.00011.1
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)294.34283.73-10.61-3.6
Dow in gold ounces14.2413.73-0.51-3.6
Dow in Silver ounces1,022.47975.26-47.21-4.6
Dow Industrials18,161.1917,888.28-272.91-1.5
S&P5002,126.412,085.18-41.23-1.9
US dollar index98.3496.97-1.37-1.4
Platinum978.201,001.7023.502.4
Palladium615.80624.258.451.4
4-Nov-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,303.301.200.1
Silver Price, $/oz18.34-0.04-0.2
Gold/Silver Ratio71.0560.0670.1
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0141-0.0000-0.2
Platinum Price1,001.7010.101.0
Palladium Price617.057.201.2
S&P 5002,085.18-3.48-0.2
Dow17,888.28-42.39-0.2
Dow in GOLD $s283.73-0.91-0.3
Dow in GOLD oz13.73-0.04-0.3
Dow in SILVER oz975.26-0.13-0.0
US Dollar Index96.97-0.23-0.2
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,304.20


GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,340.721,347.891,347.89
1/2 AE0.50664.63687.971,375.93
1/4 AE0.25335.57350.501,402.02
1/10 AE0.10136.84142.811,428.10
Aust. 100 corona0.981,271.981,280.981,306.86
British sovereign0.24309.31322.311,369.21
French 20 franc0.19241.06245.061,312.58
Krugerrand1.001,321.151,331.151,331.15
Maple Leaf1.001,314.201,328.201,328.20
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50749.92684.711,369.41
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25332.57348.871,395.49
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10138.25142.161,421.58
Mexican 50 peso1.211,564.481,575.481,306.69
.9999 bar1.001,308.761,316.201,316.20
SPOT SILVER:18.37


SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7725.0027.0035.29
VG+ Peace dollar0.7720.0022.0028.76
90% silver coin bags0.7213,595.7313,881.7319.42
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,225.935,375.9318.22
100 oz .999 bar100.001,816.501,851.5018.52
10 oz .999 bar10.00185.15190.1519.02
1 oz .999 round1.0018.1718.6718.67
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0019.8721.3721.37
SPOT PLATINUM:1,001.70


PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Platinum Platypus1.001,016.701,046.701,046.70

Hard week for the big things, but great week for the little ones. S&P500 has dropped for nine days running, its longest losing streak since December 1980 [sic]. US dollar index proved this week it has no lungs tough enough to breathe the rarified air above 99. US 30 year treasury bond continues to fall, forecasting the worst economic mess in history. SILVER & GOLD PRICE had a great week, breaking through resistance at 1800¢ & $1,300, & are set for another big rally.

Next Monday and Tuesday markets will be frozen, waiting to see whether the evil teenager or the blustering teenager wins. Truth to tell, 'twon't make a hill of beans to the economy. It has already been crippled by 36 years of interest rate suppression & the last 8 years of central bank madness (Quantitative Easing, zero interest rates, negative interest rates). Trouble is already baked into the cake, so it doesn't matter which communist is elected. Still, Wall Street thinks a Trump victory will do for US stocks what Brexit did for British stocks & the pound. Maybe a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Dow today lost 42.39 (0.24%) to 17,888.28. S&P500 fell 3.48 (0.17%) to 2,085.18.

Stocks are bracing to leap off a cliff edge. Here's the Dow Chart, http://schrts.co/wfVIft
In this chart of the last 11 months you can see the stock rally that began off the January/February double bottom, began losing steam, made a sharp wedge up to a new high in August, and has rolled down the hill since then. In the last three days the Dow has closed below support at about 18,000. Maybe the 200 day moving average will catch it at 17,768, but I doubt it. Should Hellery win the election, stocks might rally briefly, but reality won't go away & will soon catch up with them. A Trump victory will likely push stocks over the edge immediately.

Read it & weep, the US dollar index chart, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

US dollar index has sunk for the last 5 days. Now it has finally breached 97, closing today 23 basis points lighter than yesterday (down 0.23%) at 96.97. Next support is around 96.25. We know currency markets are a rigged game, but that's as negative a chart as you'll find anywhere.

As the mirror images of the US dollar, the yen & euro have gained from the dollar's losing streak, but not enough to inspire any optimism. Euro today rose 0.27% to $1.1137. Yen lost 0.06% to 97.06. I imagine that a Trump victory would send the dollar lower, another way of saying "Send gold higher."

Y'all better give ear about these bonds & interest rates. Look at the 10 year treasury yield, http://schrts.co/vUJO4G

Do y'all see that it is positioned above its moving averages & is challenging the downtrend line from 2007. It stands above its 200 DMA. It is tugging at the leash to rise.

Now look at the US 30 year treasury bond chart, http://schrts.co/7t8IsF
It "threw over" the blue channel line last July, and has since collapsed through the (green) rising wedge. Zero interest rates have forced it higher and higher, to an all time high in July. No place to go but down, and there beneath its 200 DMA, 20 DMA, and 50 DMA the bond is working mighty hard on dropping. When this market explodes, it will knock down virtually the whole world.

Comex gold rose a tee-tiny $1.20 (0.1%) today to $1,303.30. Silver gave back 4.1¢ to 1834.2¢.

But look: GOLD PRICE has closed THREE days above $1,300 resistance, SILVER PRICE 4 days above 1800¢. These resistance levels have been conquered, now silver & gold prices will move to the next ones. Next week will be filled with fear & uncertainty, which can bleed any market, but the course is set for the rest of the year and 2017: UP.
Before I say good-bye for the week, here's another Susan story.

Susan was tight: never stingy but she could squeeze a nickel till it begged for mercy. It was a game for her that she delighted to play, getting the most for those she loved out of her resources. Her five brothers and sisters are every bit as tight as Susan. They compete at tightness.

In 1999 when we moved into our log house, it came with an unfinished barn or garage. In the loft was a wooden casket the fellow who built our house had made for someone who never paid him for it, so he just threw the casket in with the house.
Now that casket worked on Susan's mind and stimulated her frugality. She used to tell me, "Whichever of us dies first, we're going to use that casket." She was absolutely serious.

A few hours after she died some of my sons and my eldest grandsons were standing out in the drive, and I thought about that casket & Susan's instructions. "You boys get on up in that loft and get that casket down. Mama Sue wanted to use it." They all called her Mama Sue.

They dragged it down, covered with an inch of dust, but it wasn't bad looking. Made of poplar, which ages out to a beautiful honey color, with a walnut cross on the top and metal handles. They took it up to the farm and cleaned it up, polished it, & painted the metal handles. One of my sons used to work for a casket manufacturer not far from us, and he took it down there & they installed a lining.

So Susan got a fine free casket & played the final trump card on her siblings: no way they'll ever get free caskets!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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